2024 Lineup (What we actually have - no trade speculation.)

Cassvt2023

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Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
Not sure where to put this, so I'll just throw it in here in the line up thread.

Going back and watching the highlights of the first week with the off-day, it always makes me chuckle somewhat seeing the various sites try to "grade" defense vs what someone's eyes tell them, and how that truly fits in to wins and losses. I say this thinking about Rafaela and his play in CF, specifically in Oakland.

He currently has a 1.0 fWAR grade on defense and is -1.9 hitting for a total fWAR of 0.0.

Then you think to the games the past two days and realize that if you had gone with an similar to last years of Abreu in LF, Duran in CF, O'Neil and RF and Yoshida as the DH, the Sox probably go 1-2 in the two games against Oakland instead of 3-0. I'm not trying to say that Rafaela won those games - someone needed to drive the runner in, pitch, etc, etc. But I'm also saying I think they lose both games without him.

This is mostly just to post - wow is he a joy to watch out there.
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An absolute joy to watch him patrol CF. It also allows the pitchers to go right after hitters a bit more rather than nibbling, knowing they have a guy out there that will get to almost anything as long as its kept in the park. You're right, he was likely responsible for 1-2 wins already.
 
bernie carb 33

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I saw him make his first error IIRC on Wednesday at Oakland. Tried to pick the ball up and throw at the same time. But with Pivetta pitching it did not matter. LOL.
 
simplicio

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bernie carb 33 said:
I saw him make his first error IIRC on Wednesday at Oakland. Tried to pick the ball up and throw at the same time. But with Pivetta pitching it did not matter. LOL.
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It's really harsh that it was called an error. He had to redirect suddenly when Abreu completely whiffed on stopping a ball right in front of him. Rafa stretched and snowconed it on its way by, it just popped out when he brought the glove up to throw. I'm not sure anyone else on the team could have gotten a glove on it at all.
Around 1:45 here:
https://www.mlb.com/gameday/745678/video/condensed-game-bos-oak-4-3-24
 
Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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simplicio said:
It's really harsh that it was called an error. He had to redirect suddenly when Abreu completely whiffed on stopping a ball right in front of him. Rafa stretched and snowconed it on its way by, it just popped out when he brought the glove up to throw. I'm not sure anyone else on the team could have gotten a glove on it at all.
Around 1:45 here:
https://www.mlb.com/gameday/745678/video/condensed-game-bos-oak-4-3-24
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Agreed. Watching it live and to me it looked like a good RF actually makes the catch that Abreu didn't, a competent one at least picks up the ball while it's on the ground.

Of course, Rafaela more than made up for it with the catch later in the game, which is of course the play I was alluding to that if there were literally anyone else in the organization out there instead likely turns the game into a loss instead of a 1-0 win.
 
The Gray Eagle

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The goal for the offense this season is to score at least 800 runs:
https://theathletic.com/5392295/2024/04/05/red-sox-offense-9-on-1-approach/

Over the last three seasons, 15 teams have scored at least 800 runs a season and 13 of those teams made the postseason, including the 2021 Red Sox. It’s possible to reach the postseason without scoring 800 runs, of course, but the point remains: The 800-run mark is the mark of a strong offensive club and is a good indicator of a postseason berth.
That’s why the Red Sox are trying to get back to the 800-run club.
“We set the bar in our first meeting of 800 runs,” hitting coach Pete Fatse said. “We looked at baseball, and basically every playoff team outside of two or three surpassed that. We finished right around 775 last year, so we wanted to set the bar high as a group. That’s kind of the whole point of this: How do you contribute to us scoring 800 runs?”

The Red Sox haven’t been far off from the 800-run mark the past two seasons, with 735 runs in 2022 and 772 runs in 2023. But those missing few dozen runs have cost them wins, and in turn a better chance at the postseason.
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A good offense with Fenway as its home park should score at least 800 runs. The past 2 years, the offense came up short (IMO more evidence that the offense wasn't that great in those years if you factor in park effects.)

How do they plan to get back up there? Focusing on quality at-bats, competition, and a 9 vs. 1 mentality against pitchers.
Competing for quality at-bats:
One small step toward that goal is tracking consistently productive at-bats.
During spring training, the Red Sox clubhouse at JetBlue Park had a corkboard wall filled with leaderboards as a way to keep competition at the forefront. In addition to the leaderboards tracking pitching and catching metrics, there was one in the shape of a thermometer that tracked productive at-bats and overall runs scored.
“The leaderboard itself is kind of like visual accountability, you can’t run from it,” Fatse said. “We post it every day, it gets updated and basically is a quality-at-bats chart.”
The chart showed how each batter ranked on three metrics: walks, strikeouts and barrels (a stat that measures exit velocity and launch angle, i.e., solid contact).
“Those are the things we value from a process perspective and we’re going to post it every day,” Fatse said.
The Red Sox also kept track of where the club ranked among other teams in runs scored.
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9-on-1 mentality:
That nine-on-one mentality has been another way the Red Sox hope to get back to 800 runs this season. While within each at-bat it is technically a one-on-one battle between the pitcher and hitter, the nine-on-one mentality Red Sox hitting coaches are preaching reminds players they’re one unit facing the opposing pitcher. The message is: Don’t feel like you need to do everything in one at-bat. Advance a runner, take a few extra pitches to wear out the pitcher or let the runner swipe a base. Not everyone needs to go to the plate looking for the big hit to drive in a run. The small wins add up to scoring runs.
“The nine-on-one is a group mentality, all pulling from the same rope,” assistant hitting coach Ben Rosenthal said. “If I’m up and don’t get the pitch, I know someone else is behind me and he’ll have that opportunity, and if he doesn’t, the next guy. Not trying to make something happen that’s not there.”
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Let's hope the 9 on 1 t-shirts work out better than the "He's the Ace" shirts did.
Too often over the past two seasons, the Red Sox pressed at the plate and wasted opportunities with men on base. Rather than just talking about it in hitter’s meetings, Red Sox coaches decided it needed to be even more at the forefront.
Fatse knows his players and he knows they like swag. Over the winter, he had black and white sweatshirts made for his hitters with “9-on-1” across the front with signature Red Sox lettering.
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Here's hoping this stuff works and we get the quality at-bats needed to score more than 800 this year.
 
ponch73

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The Gray Eagle said:
The goal for the offense this season is to score at least 800 runs:
https://theathletic.com/5392295/2024/04/05/red-sox-offense-9-on-1-approach/

A good offense with Fenway as its home park should score at least 800 runs. The past 2 years, the offense came up short (IMO more evidence that the offense wasn't that great in those years if you factor in park effects.)

How do they plan to get back up there? Focusing on quality at-bats, competition, and a 9 vs. 1 mentality against pitchers.

Let's hope the 9 on 1 t-shirts work out better than the "He's the Ace" shirts did.

Here's hoping this stuff works and we get the quality at-bats needed to score more than 800 this year.
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It's still very early in the season, and Seattle and Oakland are tougher offensive ballparks, but the Sox are off to a subpar start.

29 runs through 7 games translates to a 671 run pace. In 3 of 7 games, the offense hasn't been able to put up 4 runs.

If this persists deeper into the season, I wonder how quickly Fatse's seat will start warming up.
 
Cassvt2023

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ponch73 said:
It's still very early in the season, and Seattle and Oakland are tougher offensive ballparks, but the Sox are off to a subpar start.

29 runs through 7 games translates to a 671 run pace. In 3 of 7 games, the offense hasn't been able to put up 4 runs.

If this persists deeper into the season, I wonder how quickly Fatse's seat will start warming up.
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Our best hitter missed 2 of those 7 games, and was likely pressing and still sore when he did come back. Two pitchers parks to open the season. Faced one of the best rotations in baseball in one of the series. Give this team some Fenway park games, especially when the weather warms up, and I like their chances to score runs. Check back in after 30 more games.
 
Max Power

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A good offense will require multiple someones to take a step forward. Raffy could go through a season without an extended slump and improve on his usual 130 OPS+. Casas can put it all together and have the first .900+ OPS season of his professional career. Story and O'Neill could return to their pre-injury forms. Yoshida might to be the first half guy from last year and not the second half. I'm not holding out a lot of hope for Rafaela to do much with the bat, but hopefully he can eke out a .300 OBP. If everyone simply replicates their performance from last year, the offense is going to be a problem.
 
Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Casas still seems to be pressing also. Yeah, he's been given at least 3 called strikeouts that were questionable but I suspect he's pressing still. I'm not worried at all- more just hoping that he uncorks himself sooner rather than later (and I mean today rather than in a week or two, which is the longest I imagine he'll still be slumping).
I doubt that Duran can continue looking like Rod Carew but I can absolutely see him hitting a consistent .300 with a .400 OBP and .400 SLG now and just scoring an insane amount. The back end of the lineup looks solid so for me, it's more how Story, Yoshida and Grissom/Valdez and Abreu/O'Neill play.
 
Rovin Romine

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Max Power said:
A good offense will require multiple someones to take a step forward. Raffy could go through a season without an extended slump and improve on his usual 130 OPS+. Casas can put it all together and have the first .900+ OPS season of his professional career. Story and O'Neill could return to their pre-injury forms. Yoshida might to be the first half guy from last year and not the second half. I'm not holding out a lot of hope for Rafaela to do much with the bat, but hopefully he can eke out a .300 OBP. If everyone simply replicates their performance from last year, the offense is going to be a problem.
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Well, I get what you're saying, but the bolded is sort of an impossibility.

They were sixth in runs in the AL in 2023. For plus hitters, they lost Duvall 119 OPS+, Turner 114. Verdugo was 100. Arroyo, Hernandez, Story, and Chang all had over 100 ABs, and an OPS+ of 70 or less.

This year they're replacing really bad performances at SS and 2B with what appears to be a huge upgrade to at least competent defense and offense (Story, plus Valdez/Grissom). They've also upgraded the OF defensively, and Duran/Rafaela/O'Neill looks to be an offensive upgrade over Yoshida/Duran/Verdugo.

DH may be a "downgrade" from Turner to Yoshida, but if we're looking at your 2023 numbers premise, the difference is Yoshida's 109 OPS+ v. Turner's 114.

The main problem is there's not really a track record for Grissom, Rafaela, Abreu. Story and O'Neill should be competent MLB hitters, but have recent injury history. (But then again so did Duvall, coming off 102 and 86 OPS campaigns before 2024.)

***

I think we're fine without heroics and will end up a top 5 offensive club. But let's put some AL context numbers on it and look at the 2023 AL team positions by OPS (does not have OPS+): https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?request=1&year=2023&lg=AL&stat=OPS

C: #9 in AL. My 2024 guess? Same/possible improvement. Wong's simplified his swing.​
​
1B: #2 in AL. 2024: same. Last year Turner had 150 good ABs here. A mild improvement by Casas (i.e., just not having a cold start) will erase the loss of those.​
​
2B: #13. 2024: huge plus. Valdez/Grissom should be average or better on offense. For context if Valdez's 2023 OPS is the average for our 2B, we'd have been #5 in the AL.​
​
3B: #2 in AL. 2024: same. Last year everyone who spelled Raffy (including Turner) hit below a .540 OPS.​
​
SS: #12 in AL. 2024: huge plus. Last year was awful, although interestingly, Reyes and Rafaela did well in about 100 ABs - enough so if that were the whole year, the Sox would have been 5th or so. This year, it's Story as the primary for defense. But his offense? The floor is low: Story at only .700 OPS would have bumped them up to #8 in 2023. 2022 Story gets them to #6. Story at his career average OPS (.834) would have bumped them up to #2.​
​
LF: #2 in AL. 2024: same/mild downgrade. That was mostly Yoshida, plus the rest of the OF crew. Now it will be mostly Duran, with some Yoshida.​
​
CF: #2 in AL. 2024: unknown. That was Duvall/Duran. Now mostly Rafaela, who is projected by bRef to have a 750 OPS or so, which'd be 6th in the 2023 AL spread for CF.​
​
RF: #9 in AL. 2024: same/plus. That was almost all Verdugo. O'Neill seems to be as good or better defensively and offensively.​
​
DH: #8 in AL. 2024: mild downgrade. That was mostly Turner/Yoshida, with Turner having the better numbers.​

I realize personnel have changed elsewhere, that other players will develop, etc. Also, all these raw OPS numbers qill trend down a bit, given the number and quality of backup at-bats. Which is always going to be lower. However, the 2023 rankings include some pretty awful backup numbers, and some pretty good ones (mostly OF). And I think our 2024 depth has more of a competence-level of offense to it, rather than any pure-defense types like Chang.

So my takeaway here is approximate and conservative-ish:

3B: top 2 to top 2​
1B: top 2 to top 2​
LF: top 2 to top 3​
2B: bottom 3 to top 5​
SS: bottom 3 to top 6​
RF: top 9 to top 7​
CF: top 2 to top 8 (735 OPS or so)​
DH: top 8 to top 9​
C: top 9 to top 9​

We go from 2023's:
2, 2, 2, 2, 8, 9, 12, 13​
to:
2, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 9​
​
I think that's a mild but significant improvement in terms of offense alone, which does not require anyone take a massive step forward. And this package comes with much improved defense.

Still volatile, and there's not a ton of org-depth for the bats right now. Injury or a kind of catastrophic regression can still tilt that quite a bit. But so can the slightly-better outcomes for Yoshida, etc. A just-below-career average Story, and a slightly-worse than first half Yoshida, and an as projected Rafaela makes this:

We go from 2023's:
2, 2, 2, 2, 8, 9, 12, 13​
to:
2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9​
​
​
 
RS2004foreever

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It's very early. There are a lot of players with less than 700 PA - so scoring 800 runs looks like a stretch to me. Not at all convinced Abreu/Duran/Valdez/Rafaela are major league hitters at the end of the day, but we will see.
 
DavidTai

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As much as I like the concept behind it, "9 on 1" just reminds me of the meme with a single woman sitting on a couch with a group of men about to do... things.
 
simplicio

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Story goes down. My vote is for a Romy call up. Currently rocking a 1.414 OPS in AAA and looked smooth on defense from what I saw of him in ST.
 
The_Dali

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RS2004foreever said:
It's very early. There are a lot of players with less than 700 PA - so scoring 800 runs looks like a stretch to me. Not at all convinced Abreu/Duran/Valdez/Rafaela are major league hitters at the end of the day, but we will see.
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Putting Duran in this group is silly. He may not be a “star” at the end of the day, but he’s clearly a MLB caliber hitter.
 
Rovin Romine

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simplicio said:
Story goes down. My vote is for a Romy call up. Currently rocking a 1.414 OPS in AAA and looked smooth on defense from what I saw of him in ST.
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The 40 man depth at SS would be: Reyes, Rafaela, Hamilton, R. Gonzalez. Grissom had a disastrous SS stint with the Braves, so he's probably best kept in the 2B slot when he comes up.

Assuming Story goes on the IL, I wouldn't break up the OF to move Rafaela to cover SS - as "sexy" as it may look to shuffle guys around to show off their versatility.

I'd probably call up Gonzalez for the hot hand - assuming his SS numbers grade out. If not, Hamilton.
 
Cassvt2023

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So with Hamilton being called up to replace Story, that is another LH bat in the lineup. In addition, McGuire has hit so well in the early going and has seemed to have taken the lead catcher role for now. So against a RHP, this only leaves O’Neil and Rafaela and 7 LHH. For a team that was already skewed L heavy a week ago, is this something that needs to be addressed? ( In addition, the top 3 prospects all hit L as well).
 
absintheofmalaise

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Cassvt2023 said:
So with Hamilton being called up to replace Story, that is another LH bat in the lineup. In addition, McGuire has hit so well in the early going and has seemed to have taken the lead catcher role for now. So against a RHP, this only leaves O’Neil and Rafaela and 7 LHH. For a team that was already skewed L heavy a week ago, is this something that needs to be addressed? ( In addition, the top 3 prospects all hit L as well).
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Grissom hits righty and he should be up around the end of April or early May.
 
Cassvt2023

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absintheofmalaise said:
Grissom hits righty and he should be up around the end of April or early May.
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Yes. That will give it a bit more balance. And I’m assuming Refsnyder will be taking Abreu’s spot around the same time, but I never want to see him get regular at bats against RH pitching.
 
Fishy1

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I don't really get the appeal of keeping Refsnyder around except to preserve flexibility. The team already has two right-handed hitting outfielders and only one left-handed hitting outfielder who can play the field reliably in Duran.

I think Abreu will get sent down because he has options but with Rafaela and O'Neill healthy and Duran an everyday player, Refsnyder doesn't really have a role.
 
Cassvt2023

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Fishy1 said:
I don't really get the appeal of keeping Refsnyder around except to preserve flexibility. The team already has two right-handed hitting outfielders and only one left-handed hitting outfielder who can play the field reliably in Duran.

I think Abreu will get sent down because he has options but with Rafaela and O'Neill healthy and Duran an everyday player, Refsnyder doesn't really have a role.
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I couldn’t agree more and have been saying it since before he got hurt in ST. A 32 yr old journeyman with 17 career HR and average at best D in OF doesn’t really need to be taking a roster spot on this team as it’s currently constructed. Especially since O’Neill has cemented himself as an everyday player and Rafaela’s glove is special. People gave me a lot of shit about it, so I’m glad to hear someone sees it the same way.
 
TeeJayOrTj

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Cassvt2023 said:
I couldn’t agree more and have been saying it since before he got hurt in ST. A 32 yr old journeyman with 17 career HR and average at best D in OF doesn’t really need to be taking a roster spot on this team as it’s currently constructed. Especially since O’Neill has cemented himself as an everyday player and Rafaela’s glove is special. People gave me a lot of shit about it, so I’m glad to hear someone sees it the same way.
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What about the fact that he is the 3rd best hitter vs LHP on the team? I like the idea of having Rafaela play SS vs LHP when Refsnyder is back and having O'Neil play some CF.
 
Fishy1

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TeeJayOrTj said:
What about the fact that he is the 3rd best hitter vs LHP on the team? I like the idea of having Rafaela play SS vs LHP when Refsnyder is back and having O'Neil play some CF.
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The numbers don't really bear this out. Ref's career OPS against LHP is .757, which only beats Devers by .007. Casas has him beat, I think he and Rafaela are probably a wash, Story is much better (but injured!), Dalbec is (for his career) much better, O'Neill is much better, and Yoshida he only out OPS's by .025, which, while not insubstantial, might jot justify a roster spot. I have him tied for fifth on the team against LHP basically. And yeah, Ref has outplayed that .757 in some years, but I look at the career to try to get the largest sample size I can.

Again, I think he's basically here to preserve some roster flexibility, and that's fine, but I wouldn't miss him.
 
jbupstate

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Fishy1 said:
The numbers don't really bear this out. Ref's career OPS against LHP is .757, which only beats Devers by .007. Casas has him beat, I think he and Rafaela are probably a wash, Story is much better (but injured!), Dalbec is (for his career) much better, O'Neill is much better, and Yoshida he only out OPS's by .025, which, while not insubstantial, might jot justify a roster spot. I have him tied for fifth on the team against LHP basically. And yeah, Ref has outplayed that .757 in some years, but I look at the career to try to get the largest sample size I can.

Again, I think he's basically here to preserve some roster flexibility, and that's fine, but I wouldn't miss him.
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I’m not making a case for Refsnyder but his last few years versus LHP have been very good.
 
TeeJayOrTj

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Fishy1 said:
The numbers don't really bear this out. Ref's career OPS against LHP is .757, which only beats Devers by .007. Casas has him beat, I think he and Rafaela are probably a wash, Story is much better (but injured!), Dalbec is (for his career) much better, O'Neill is much better, and Yoshida he only out OPS's by .025, which, while not insubstantial, might jot justify a roster spot. I have him tied for fifth on the team against LHP basically. And yeah, Ref has outplayed that .757 in some years, but I look at the career to try to get the largest sample size I can.

Again, I think he's basically here to preserve some roster flexibility, and that's fine, but I wouldn't miss him.
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I don't think looking at career OPS without adjusting for context is a great way to evaluate what will happen this year. For example just take a peak at Story and his career home/road splits vs LHP. I don't think Ref is great but with Story hurt he for sure has a place on this team. And even with everyone healthy I would much rather have Abreu in the minors
 
Cassvt2023

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TeeJayOrTj said:
I don't think looking at career OPS without adjusting for context is a great way to evaluate what will happen this year. For example just take a peak at Story and his career home/road splits vs LHP. I don't think Ref is great but with Story hurt he for sure has a place on this team. And even with everyone healthy I would much rather have Abreu in the minors
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so you want him on this team to get around the 30% of the LHP at bats? Or you want him getting regular play?
 
Rovin Romine

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Cassvt2023 said:
so you want him on this team to get around the 30% of the LHP at bats? Or you want him getting regular play?
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I think the Refsnyder/Abreu debate is pretty fleshed-out, both in this thread and elsewhere. Why not see what happens instead of turning over the same stuff? It's possible that by the time Refsnyder is ready to come up, something will make the discussion tilt one way or another.
 
TeeJayOrTj

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Cassvt2023 said:
so you want him on this team to get around the 30% of the LHP at bats? Or you want him getting regular play?
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I think he should play every day vs LHP and bat top 5 in the order. He can play anywhere in the OF or DH depending on if C-Note is in CF or SS
 
Fishy1

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TeeJayOrTj said:
I don't think looking at career OPS without adjusting for context is a great way to evaluate what will happen this year. For example just take a peak at Story and his career home/road splits vs LHP. I don't think Ref is great but with Story hurt he for sure has a place on this team. And even with everyone healthy I would much rather have Abreu in the minors
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Right, but adjusting for context (say by looking at his most recent performance) will also give you a small sample size thats vulnerable to luck and other factors. For example, I doubt the 378 BABIP Refsnyder posted last year against LHP is his true talent level. Hence my preference for the career sample size.

Like I said, I'm fine with them sending Abreu down if it comes down to it, but I'd rather we have an outfield of Duran-O'Neill-Rafaela and Yoshida at DH against LHP because the difference between Refsnyder and Yoshida's bats is marginal enough that I would prefer Yoshi get to prove out his bat. If he does hit well enough, that contract is all the more tradeable... whereas if we bench him against LHP to get Refsnyder at-bats, that contract will become untradeable, I would think.

I'd also prefer we get Abreu at bats and comfortable at the major league level because I think his power and patience are legit even if his hit tool is mediocre, and it seems to me like there's little reason other than roster flexibility for a guy with exactly 0 career WAR like Refsnyder to be taking that roster spot.

Dalbec has also outhit Refsnyder against LHP for his career - I know hes been bad lately, but he has options still.
 
TeeJayOrTj

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You act like Yoshida and Duran are going to play 162 games. They can sit out once every two weeks vs LHP. Also the option to play SS once a week seems pretty realistic right now and he can 100% do that vs just LHP. And we still have the option of putting Refsnyder at 1b potentially. I am not sure if the sox plan to do it but Casas will need a break every once in a while as well. We already know Yoshida wore down last year as the season went on. So getting him some rest vs LHP a couple times a month seems prudent.
 
Petagine in a Bottle

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Isn’t it all about depth? Once Refsnyder is healthy, he replaces Abreu who can play every day in AAA. Then, once someone gets hurt, Abreu comes up. If you just drop Refsnyder, Abreu doesn’t get much playing time, and then when someone gets hurt, you are having to call up a Dalton Guthrie or Mark Contreras.
 
Fishy1

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Petagine in a Bottle said:
Isn’t it all about depth? Once Refsnyder is healthy, he replaces Abreu who can play every day in AAA. Then, once someone gets hurt, Abreu comes up. If you just drop Refsnyder, Abreu doesn’t get much playing time, and then when someone gets hurt, you are having to call up a Dalton Guthrie or Mark Contreras.
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Yeah, I agree that it's all about depth.
 
Rovin Romine

Rovin Romine

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OK, some data points here as markers among the debate:

Today, the day before the home opener:

Ceddanne Rafaela was extended 8/50, and should therefore be an OF fixture. No AAA if he even moderately struggles, I think.​
​
No definiative news on Trevor Story yet.​
​
Hamilton remains up as SS. Thusfar Reyes got a start on Hamilton's travel day, and Hamilton played yesterday - booted a ball, made a bunch of nifty defensive plays thereafter and hit a HR.​
​
Bobby Dalbec (0-9, 6Ks) is sent back to AAA in favor of Romy Gonzalez, who was hitting the cover off the ball.​
 
simplicio

simplicio

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I'm wondering if, with Hamilton looking better than last year and Valdez looking terrible so far, Romy steps in as the everyday 2B for now.
 
Cassvt2023

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simplicio said:
I'm wondering if, with Hamilton looking better than last year and Valdez looking terrible so far, Romy steps in as the everyday 2B for now.
Click to expand...
it would seem to make sense to get another RHH in the lineup with Hamilton and now McGuire both likely getting regular starts. And presumably Romy’s D is an upgrade over Manu’s.
 
Fishy1

Fishy1

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Valdez could take a seat for a couple of games just to get his head straight. This guy who's swinging at everything above the letters and over the top of everything below his knees... that's not the Valdez we saw last year. He looks like he's regressed. He needs to find his patience and settle into a confident plate approach. He walked 17.7% of the time last year in AAA. That's a lot of walks! And yet he's up here and posted a 5.4% BB rate last year and 2.9% walk rate this year. That's less patience than Rafaela.

Romy should give him some breathing room to sort things out, and if he can't or doesn't, well, Grissom will be in the wings. Lot of options, one of them should stick.
 
Rovin Romine

Rovin Romine

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Just updating the thread with news on Trevor Story.

Breslow said Story has a fractured glenoid rim and will have surgery on Friday April 12th. A 6th month recovery is expected.

So, the best case would be an early September return, but he should be considered out for the year.
 
nvalvo

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Rovin Romine said:
OK, some data points here as markers among the debate:

Today, the day before the home opener:

Ceddanne Rafaela was extended 8/50, and should therefore be an OF fixture. No AAA if he even moderately struggles, I think.​
​
No definiative news on Trevor Story yet.​
​
Hamilton remains up as SS. Thusfar Reyes got a start on Hamilton's travel day, and Hamilton played yesterday - booted a ball, made a bunch of nifty defensive plays thereafter and hit a HR.​
​
Bobby Dalbec (0-9, 6Ks) is sent back to AAA in favor of Romy Gonzalez, who was hitting the cover off the ball.​
Click to expand...
The Rafaela extension could be interpreted differently: you could say that extending him aligns incentives in a way that makes it *easier* to send him down if deemed necessary for his development without damaging the relationship.
 
Rovin Romine

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Another intermittent update for future tracking-purposes, edited on 4/13 to more completely track the Story Replacement Debacle. These moves are already being extensively discussed elsewhere:

-4/6 Trevor Story went on the 10-day IL. Surgery scheduled for today (4/12), but he's not yet on the 60day IL, which would open a 40-man spot.​
​
-4/6 David Hamilton was called up from AAA. Has started mainly at SS, with several notably blown plays. SoSH seems generally down on him.​
​
-4/8 Bobby Dalbec, who had made the opening day roster but has not hit (0-9 w/ 6Ks), was sent down for:​
​
-4/9 Romy Gonzalez who played 1.5 competently fielded games before injuring his wrist on a nifty play at SS.​
​
-4/11 (+4/12, +4/13) Raffy Devers held out of the game with day-to-day shoulder soreness.​
​
-4/12 Bobby Dalbec is recalled from AAA (1-7, HR, BB, 4K) with Isiah Campbell going on the 15-day IL with shoulder impingement.​
​
-4/12 Romy Gonzales being put on the 10-day IL, backdated to the 11th. Soonest he can come back is the 21st of April.​
​
-4/12 Cooper Criswell is up to at least spot-start on 4/13.​
​

As a kind of general note: The Sox went 0-3 against the Orioles, despite excellent starts in all the games. Defensive miscues are the primary story here, though the bullpen also hiccuped. Then they imploded in their first home game against LAA. Defensive miscues were again the story.

Currently two potential 40-man spots are open with Story and Walter perhaps ready to go on the 60-day IL. Those might be filled by someone from inside or outside the org. but the current need appears to be MI defense. The main in-house options have already appeared: Hamilton, Romy, Reyes for SS and Valdez at 2B. Rafaela is apparently ticked to stay in CF for the moment, but he's also on the active roster.

At this point the only position player on the 40 man who hasn't been called up is Tyler Heineman (catcher).

Vaughn Grissom, 10-day IL, hamstring, is expected to begin rehab games this week, and could be up by the end of April. He remains the primary option for 2B. Edit- He DH'd on 4/12, starting his 20 day max rehab clock.

Rob Refsnyder, 10-day IL, toe, is also currently playing rehab games, beginning on 4/10.
 
Last edited:
Rovin Romine

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Placeholder post based on today's lineup: Duran CF, Devers 3B, O’Neill LF, Casas 1B, Yoshida DH, Abreu RF, Valdez 2B, McGuire C, Rafaela SS, and Crawford RHP

10 calendar days after Story went down, Rafaela gets penciled in for a start at SS. Devers also returns from his non-IL stretch of four days resting his sore left shoulder. This is significant as Cora has been resistant to using Rafaela at SS thusfar. (Which is not completely irrational given the options (or non-options) at any given time.)

***
These two events (Rafaela + Devers) may or may not be related, with the Sox going against the Indians' Curry, a RHP, and starting Crawford. Hamilton, who Rafaela is replacing, has played 6 games at SS since April 7th, skipping only the April 10th game. Even though he's a LHH, perhaps he's due for a rest?

SSS but this year Hamilton's hitting RHP at a .741 clip and LHP at .286. Rafaela is .476/.552. Reyes is .343/.529. To me that suggests Hamilton at SS v. RH starters, spelled by Rafaela/Reyes v LH starters.

So perhaps if Devers is feeling good, Cora is hoping Rafaela's defense at SS will be balanced by Devers' offensive production, while mitigating Devers' defensive issues? Meanwhile, O'Neil, Duran, Abreu is a defensive downgrade in the OF, but not inadequate. If Abreu is warming up, it's an offensive upgrade.

We'll see if it becomes a pattern.

***

In any event, I'll take a moment and log what's happened with the IF since Story was injured, subs in parens:

5th: Casas, Valdez, Story (Reyes), Devers.​
6th: Casas, Valdez, Reyes, Devers.​
7th: Casas, Valdez, Hamilton, Devers (Dalbec).​
8th: Off Day.​
Note: Dalbec to AAA, Gonzalez up.​
9th: Casas, Valdez, Hamilton (Gonzalez), Devers.​
10th: Casas, Reyes (Rafaela), Gonzalez, Devers.​
Note: Gonzalez/Devers injured during this game.​
11th: Casas, Valdez (Rafaela)(Wong)(Rafaela), Hamilton, Reyes.​
Note: Dalbec up.​
12th: Casas, Reyes, Hamilton, Dalbec.​
13th: Casas, Valdez (Reyes), Hamilton, Dalbec.​
14th: Casas, Reyes (Rafaela), Hamilton, Dalbec (Reyes).​
​
It's not ideal, but fairly rational given the options. A lot of subbing went on, mostly due to pinch hitting. Even so, the team went 4-5 over this stretch. W, L, W, L, L, L, L, W, W.

If anyone has a moment, it might be good for posterity's sake to put in an error/miscue log for these 9 games. Not bobbles, but game-impacting IF fielding issues? Any takers?
 
Rovin Romine

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Well, that was an eventful loss today. Tyler O'Neill is in concussion protocol, following a collision with Devers.

Tyler Heineman, catcher, is the only position player left on the 40 man.

Although Walter seems like he could go on the 60day IL? If not to get a position player up, they'd have to cut from:

Zack Kelly​
Joe Jacques​
Naoyuki Unasawa​

Wikelman Gonzalez and Luis Perales are also on the 40, but wouldn't be cut in a situation like this.

And then there's Dalbec.
 
Cassvt2023

Cassvt2023

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Rovin Romine said:
Well, that was an eventful loss today. Tyler O'Neill is in concussion protocol, following a collision with Devers.

Tyler Heineman, catcher, is the only position player left on the 40 man.

Although Walter seems like he could go on the 60day IL? If not to get a position player up, they'd have to cut from:

Zack Kelly​
Joe Jacques​
Naoyuki Unasawa​

Wikelman Gonzalez and Luis Perales are also on the 40, but wouldn't be cut in a situation like this.

And then there's Dalbec.
Click to expand...
I feel like of those 3 pitchers, Jacques is most expendable. We just got Unasawa and Kelly has shown promise. We have seen JJ and it hasn't been that pretty. He'd maybe even clear waivers. If O'Neill has a concussion, we will certainly need another bat added to the 40, preferably someone like Sogard who can play SS. At this point, I think I'd rather see Hamilton at 2B than Valdez as well.
 
Fishy1

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Lineup so far. Things of note:

-Obviously Duran, O'Neill, and Casas have been bright spots.
-The bottom of the barrell is striking out an absolutely outrageous amount.
-Devers and Valdez have BABIP around .150, which is crazy low.
-Team wrc+ is 94, below average definitely.

I see two guys playing at or around their projections from last year (Casas, Duran is BABIPing around .400 again), one guy underperforming slightly so far (Yoshida), and two guys playing way over their heads in McGuire and O'Neill. O'Neill has greatness in him, but probably not an wrc+ of 227... one can hope.

The rest have been bad, some of them insanely so. Devers wrc+ so far is 107, actually, which is funny since he's batting under .200. Reyes, Rafaela, Hamilton, Story (RIP), Abreu and Valdez have unfortunately done pretty much nothing with the opportunities given to them. Valdez's D hasn't been bad, at least. Some of them have shown signs of heating up. Rafaela hit three balls very hard the other day, Wilyer looked better the other night before having a mix of good and bat at-bats today (he's gotta start striking out less).

No conclusions we can really draw about any of these guys yet, obviously, it's still early.
 
Cassvt2023

Cassvt2023

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Assuming O'Neill is not in concussion protocol, I'd guess that Cora will still give him at least tonight off. This would push Rafaela back to the outfield and leave a MI of Hamilton and Valdez again. I sure hope Whitlock has his swing and miss strikeout stuff tonight rather than inducing a ton of ground balls. Unless he chooses to start Reyes at one of them against a RHP.
 
Rovin Romine

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Petagine in a Bottle said:
Can’t they just move Story to the 60-day?
Click to expand...
I keep forgetting he's not on the 60-day yet. By delaying it, they can keep that 40-man spot open until a point where they're willing to commit to a particular player by putting them on it. And there's no need to do that until you're going to call someone up. So, best to wait and see how things go with the minor-leaguers.

Does anyone know if there's any requirement to keep the 40-man full?
 
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