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  1. chrisfont9

    Why Are Prospects Not Hitting at the MLB Level?

    The usual progression is not just the hitter adjusting but pitchers discovering a weakness and then the hitter adjusting to them adjusting to him. I think I'm just being super obvious here. Bottom line, it takes some time, and everyone's exact time is different. I guess the only thing new is...
  2. chrisfont9

    Why Are Prospects Not Hitting at the MLB Level?

    Seems like there is a ton of value in bringing guys up later in the season, if your team isn't a serious contender for anything more than wild card scraps. Wilyer, for example, started on his learning curve last summer, and needed a bit more time getting going, but was already half way up his...
  3. chrisfont9

    Chris Sale (plus $17mil) traded to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom

    The Sox traded "out of" the 2024 window (not entirely but with this roster spot) and into a later window with Grissom, plus some cash to play with. They currently have one of the youngest rosters in all of baseball. It's no mystery what the plan is, nor is there any reason to think Sale would...
  4. chrisfont9

    Red Sox acquire Zack Short

    To quote someone from long ago on this board, not Kevin Cash but actual fucking cash? I guess it was nice of the Sox to give him a ride to his new home.
  5. chrisfont9

    Sox trade John Schreiber to KC for minor league right-hander David Sandlin

    I mentioned this somewhere, maybe in this thread, but from Jen McCaffrey's article yesterday the delta here is partly pitch mix, but also a change in communication, from a lot of info delivered somewhat chaotically to a streamlined system of messaging to allow guys to focus more on a set plan...
  6. chrisfont9

    Sox trade John Schreiber to KC for minor league right-hander David Sandlin

    It'd be perfect for the Sox to buy up 2-3 more years, though maybe you are saying he won't do that because that's his window to get Paid.
  7. chrisfont9

    5/8: Sale Day takes on a new meaning

    All this really just means that we need to start playing shitty teams for fucking once this year. [Nationals on tap this weekend, thankfully.]
  8. chrisfont9

    Let's Predict the 2024 Red Sox Season

    The Athletic has a good article today (paywall) about some of the inner workings. Gist of it is that the past regime was too scattered and inconsistent in its approach and messages to pitchers. Current one simplifying stuff. But they did have some complimentary things to say about some of the...
  9. chrisfont9

    Let's Predict the 2024 Red Sox Season

    Weirdly they are now FOUR wins below their expected W-L, and the ESPN power index has them seventh overall, thanks to a fifth hardest schedule in MLB to date. So if they regress to their XW-L mean, they will pick up well beyond the .544 last year. And they will presumably face opponents around...
  10. chrisfont9

    2024 Rotation and Bullpen

    I wonder where Criswell goes when Whitlock returns. My hope is that he stays in Boston for a bit. After tomorrow the Sox only have one more day off the rest of the month, and it would be nice especially for Houck and Crawford to get in a bit of extra rest. I can see a six man rotation being a...
  11. chrisfont9

    From the fire to the frying pan

    Feels like Duran could do that 150 times a year and win the MVP.
  12. chrisfont9

    Sox trade John Schreiber to KC for minor league right-hander David Sandlin

    Wow, thanks! Quite the example of mutually beneficial roster balancing. As to Tudor's next trade... woof! Basically sent to StLoo for George Hendrick, a year *after* mid-30s Hendrick's stats fell off a cliff.
  13. chrisfont9

    Sox trade John Schreiber to KC for minor league right-hander David Sandlin

    Heh, well a perfect example, since his name just came up, would be John Tudor. I would have *killed* for Tudor to have his peak years in Boston, but a) he was there long enough for the Sox to see him as a #3 type, and b) his FIP shows that maybe his peaks in St. Louis had to do with the context...
  14. chrisfont9

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    Yeah, and Cantor hits on the *real* issue, which is the eternal dilemma, whether you can tolerate the potential harm to the big club. I think in a vacuum it's usually better to have the kid learn in the show, unless it gets in his head, though even there you can see how guys like Duran just need...
  15. chrisfont9

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    Maybe. I think it's a highly specific thing, like what exactly does a guy need to work on and where will he get that. Maybe it's not so much picking up the spin as it is making the larger adjustment to a major league spinner that has more action? I wouldn't know, of course. But I do know he hit...
  16. chrisfont9

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    Right, and none of this should be a surprise. Just a year ago we watched Casas struggle to adjust to the quantum leap in quality of pitching, and he got there. This is Rafaela's floor, nothing more.
  17. chrisfont9

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    How does he improve against major league pitching in Worcester? Comparing him to Bradley on his way out of baseball isn't very enlightening. He's 23, crushed at AAA already, and has his whole future ahead of him.
  18. chrisfont9

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    The "run prevention unit" is something of a unit, and boy is it crushing it this year. Sometimes I think the pursuit of metrics (which I almost always love) can lose the forest for the trees. For him to stabilize the infield, and for the outfield to be built around defense across the board, has...
  19. chrisfont9

    May: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

    Yeah, and we've had a few lopsided wins without the corresponding lopsided losses to cancel out the weighting effect. That said, other than the six runs off a position player, we are still +35 against actual major league pitchers. Back of the envelope I think that still gets us an XW-L of 21-15.
  20. chrisfont9

    May: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

    The Red Sox are currently three wins below their XW-L, which has them at 22-13. Only the Astros and DBacks have also lost three wins off their expected W-L, nobody has more. XW-L is a blunt tool that just takes your run differential and calculates win %, but if the Sox have been unlucky somehow...
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