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  1. nvalvo

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    I don’t disagree with any of that. Carry on!
  2. nvalvo

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    I don’t know that I’d conclude this based on a .700 OPS in 100 April ABs in Portland by a 20 year old.
  3. nvalvo

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    I think the larger point stands, but it bears mentioning that Rafaela roughed up last year’s AAA.
  4. nvalvo

    Why Are Prospects Not Hitting at the MLB Level?

    The lost 2020 season and one fewer minor league affiliate per team seem like they might be factors.
  5. nvalvo

    Let's Predict the 2024 Red Sox Season

    Yeah, the McCaffrey article you mentioned (link) helped crystalize some of how I felt about the Bloom regime. Namely, I thought they were really close. We saw things like Jeffrey Springs sucking here and then going to Tampa and thriving (until he got hurt, anyway). That, to me, suggests that...
  6. nvalvo

    2024 Rotation and Bullpen

    That feels like news on Whitlock! There's been radio silence.
  7. nvalvo

    May: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

    Well, that logic holds for the blowouts that we're leading. If he hits three solo HRs in a game we lose 9-3, clearly a different dynamic is in play. But back to this season, we've won 8 blowouts and lost 5, and at least 3 of those losses came in the period when he was on the non-IL IL. So I...
  8. nvalvo

    2024 Lineup (What we actually have - no trade speculation.)

    Yes, this. When either Casas or Yoshida near a return — or if the team gets an opportunity, perhaps by trade at the deadline or from the minors, to add a two-way infielder and shift Devers to mostly DH — then Smith is on the clock. In other words, I don't think Dom Smith makes a hypothetical...
  9. nvalvo

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    Looking at what breakdowns each metric provides, here's what I see. Savant's OAA has him at par in 36 attempts in CF and -2 in 48 attempts at SS. They have him 25th on the throwing arm leaderboard. The two advanced stats available on B-R are widely divided: TZ has him -1 in CF and at par at...
  10. nvalvo

    May: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

    I guess the theory would be that a team with a lockdown bullpen is in position to win close games at an above-average rate because they can optimize when they deploy those resources. But yeah, I’m not sure I really believe that. More plausible is that SD had a 2-12 record in extra innings...
  11. nvalvo

    Sox trade John Schreiber to KC for minor league right-hander David Sandlin

    Looks like Sandlin has a huge bases-empty/runners-on split. That suggests that maybe he's working on his mechanics from the stretch. That is a very normal A-ball thing to be happening.
  12. nvalvo

    5/4 Grissom needs a day off

    This is also what I think. So I think Cora will give Smith and Cooper (but I’m not worried about Cooper) more or less daily PAs while Yoshida is IL’d. If Smith hasn’t shown anything by the time Yoshida either returns (or has surgery), it’s onto plan D at 1B/DH/LF: a Refsnyder/Kavadas platoon...
  13. nvalvo

    5/3 - Grissom finally debuts

    Before this one started I was watching the Phillies-Giants, and Jung Hoo Lee made an *insane* catch. https://twitter.com/talkinbaseball_/status/1786550841723232674?s=46&t=SzrdSkggdLnlBb_l7iGXpg
  14. nvalvo

    5/3 - Grissom finally debuts

    *waves*
  15. nvalvo

    May: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

    I will say that I find performance *relative to expectations* to be one of the most important factors driving my subjective enjoyment of a baseball season. A team like 2013 that was generally expected to win ~80–85 games winning 97 is thrilling in a way that a team expected to win ~97 winning...
  16. nvalvo

    May: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

    I think a combo of Fenway’s deep RF and the weather has cost him a ton. His SLG is less than half of his xSLG, and he has 7 fly ball outs that traveled more than 350 ft. If he had 5 or 6 HR instead of 2, the overall line would look pretty different. Obviously all is not well in Valdez-land, but...
  17. nvalvo

    2024 Rotation and Bullpen

    I don’t see any indication he’s hurt. He just got roughed up by a deep lineup in a high-altitude ballpark. It happens.
  18. nvalvo

    2024 Rotation and Bullpen

    Oh wow. They sure do!
  19. nvalvo

    Is Connor Wong a starting catcher?

    Had a huge game last night, so maybe he’s getting his feet under him. View: https://twitter.com/redsoxplayerdev/status/1786036230137782622?s=46&t=SzrdSkggdLnlBb_l7iGXpg
  20. nvalvo

    2024 Rotation and Bullpen

    Not necessarily. FIP is an ERA-scaled measure made up of BB rate, K rate, and HR rate, in an effort to remove defense, BABIP luck, and official scorers' decisions from a pitcher's record. What's interesting about it is that it correlates with future ERA somewhat better than past ERA does, so it...
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