Top 250+ Red Sox Prospects List (Prospect Discussion Thread)

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

By the numbers, yes, but not in terms of process. His problem is that he has really quick hands and he can get to just about anything in the minors. And maybe because of that he's never learned to take a walk and keeps making bad contact on stuff he shouldn't be swinging at in the first place, and then making the jump to MLB he suddenly can't get to everything anymore either so his K rate jumps 10 points.

That's all stuff that was known back when they promoted him to AAA, but so far he hasn't shown signs of improvement. I hope he can.

His ML time has been insanely small. You think we’d have figured out by now that any promotion from AAA to MLB is going to make the best AAA players look terrible. Half the board here was calling for Casas to be sent back down. I expect Rafaela to always struggle but I think he needs 3 months of patience on the ML team before declaring his weaknesses are permanent

 

[simplicio]

Again, the problem is that it's known issue that they were supposedly going to be working on in the minors this year, but he didn't demonstrate any change there either, not even taking advantage of the ABS system to walk more.

His ML experience has been brief, no doubt. But I don't see how he works through his deficiencies without regular playing time, and I don't see how you can give a guy with a 4.5 BB% and 31% K regular playing time if you aren't tanking.

 

[LoLsapien]

Excellent defense can buy you a lot of time. Part of the problem with Casas is that at the same time his offense was sputtering, he was demonstrating truly awful defense. If C-note can't adjust to MLB pitchers then he at least is supposed to offer significant defensive value which our pitchers would definitely appreciate. For instance, according to FG, the top CF by defensive value last year was Brenton Doyle (never heard of the guy, rookie on the Rockies). He had a 43 wrc+ but still was worth 0.9 WAR because his defense was apparently otherworldly. Is that ideal for your club competing for a title? No? But, Yoshida created similar value with opposite traits (ie. Plus bat, terrible glove). This assumes that you take defensive stats and WAR at face value, which, fwiw, I do.

 

[LoLsapien]

Fwiw, Teoscar Hernandez had a 5.6% walk, and 31% k rate last year, and still maintained a 105wrc+, so it is possible to be net positive with the bat despite a huge k/bb ratio

 

[LoLsapien]

Luis Robert might be the guy you'd most love C-Note to become in terms of a superficial statistical comp. 5% walk, 29% k, 128 wrc+ with positive defensive value enroute to 5 WAR this year. Really, C-note can be a positive contributor at a minimum salary with well below offensive value if his defense is as good as the scouts say it is.

 

[LoLsapien]

Sorry for spamming this post with C-Note content, but looking more into the numbers there's maybe some interesting stuff there. He has very stable k rates (in the low 20s%) and bb rates (around 5%) from A through AAA. This isn't a guy like Bobby Dalbec who had K rates in the 30s all through the minors. He also has *relatively* stable gb/FB rates that carried into MLB, and his swst% is also pretty stable from the minors into the majors (14-17%). What did change dramatically, in addition to the strikeouts, was that he hit way less balls to pull when he got to the majors, driving a lot more balls to center. Less balls to center, more balls socked against the green monster, and maybe he can push the BA and slugging up a few points without other major adjustments to his game?

 

[simplicio]

Fwiw, Teoscar Hernandez had a 5.6% walk, and 31% k rate last year, and still maintained a 105wrc+, so it is possible to be net positive with the bat despite a huge k/bb ratio

Teoscar also had about 60% more HR/PA than Ceddanne, and that 105 wrc+ is his lowest mark since 2019.

In short, I wouldn't like either in a starting role on my team.

 

[mikcou]

So, in general, I would say I value ceiling more than SoxProspects does. They tend to rate AAAA players a lot higher than I do because I would rather dream on upside over guys who can maaaaybe be replacement level players & don't really have a clear path to being better than that.

In Walter's defense, '22 Walter seemed like a player with decent upside. In 50 AA innings over 9 starts, he had a 2.88 ERA (2.26 xFIP), 0.78 WHIP, 12.2 k/9, 0.5 bb/9...kind of absurd. The downside was that it was his age 25 season & he turned 26 in September of that year. He pitched 7.2 innings over 2 starts in AAA & it didn't go well (8.22 ERA, 4.7 bb/9), but tiny sample size.

I might rate Walter higher than where I currently have him (I have him 61, SP has him 32) if I was invested in the Red Sox MiLB in '22 the way I started to be partway through this year, buuuut I wasn't, so he doesn't get as much credit for his dominant AA season, & I judge him more for his ~ok AAA season & pretty bad MLB season.

AAA - 94 IP, 4.60 ERA (4.60 xFIP), 1.43 WHIP, 8.4 k/9, 3.4 bb/9
MLB - 23 IP, 6.28 ERA (5.28 xFIP), 1.70 WHIP, 6.3 k/9, 2.7 bb/9

In MLB, Walter's 91.3 mph fastball was in the 13th percentile & his k-rate & whiff % would have been much lower than that if he qualified.

His sweeper & cutter were fairly effective, but his sinker & changeup got rocked. He seemed pretty useful against lefties (except the .467 BABIP), but was pretty awful against righties (5.2 k/9, 3.3 bb/9, 5.73 xFIP), & unless he can figure out how to get righties out, there isn't much of a role for him in modern baseball. He kind of profiles like a 27 y/o poor man's Bernardino right now, which isn't a great profile. So I would happily move him for value unless there is some sort of known injury he was pitching through or something.

On the flip side...he did seem to figure something out in Worcester along the way. Perhaps related to his time in MLB? But is becoming a good AAA pitcher the goal?

Prior to first promotion to Red Sox (4/1/23 to 6/17/23):
13 Games
12 GS
61.2 IP
43 ER
76 hits
26 walks
64 strikeouts

6.28 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 3.8 bb/9, 9.3 k/9

After first promotion to Red Sox (6/30/23 to 9/22/23):
8 Games
6 GS
32.1 IP
5 ER
23 hits
9 walks
24 strikeouts

1.39 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 2.5 bb/9, 6.7 k/9

My guess is he realized that he had enough movement on his stuff to be able to pitch to contact & still get AAA hitters out rather than trying to blow it past them. It does not seem to work the same against MLB hitters, though.

So yeah...that's why I have him 61...I don't see him ever being an MLB starting pitcher you want in your rotation, & he only has limited usefulness currently as a lefty specialist. & he is already 27.

I think a lot of Walter is the fastball. In late 21 and 22 he was sitting 93-94 when he popped; Keith Law had the story late in 2021 that he had him sitting at 94 and topping at 96-97 and thought he was the best Sox pitching prospect. Then he had the serious neck/bulging disk injury in mid 2022 and that velocity hasn't been there since. If the 93-94 doesn't come back (and given he hasnt had it in a season a half, it seems unlikely that it will), he's probably a replacement level guy.

Bulging disks have the possibility of being chronic issues so there's a pretty decent chance that he never gets that velo back.

 

[Jason Bae]

Hell of a thread, though I wasn't entirely sure we even had 250 prospects. Lol.