2022 Top MLB prospects per Keith Law.

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
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No sign of Duran or Downes. Both are still higher than Bello on Sox Prospects.
I've never been a believer in Duran, Downs I think will reaffirm his high ranking though this.... uh.... season.... Duran will tumble.
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

RIP Dernell
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Mar 24, 2008
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I did a search on SoSH and couldn't find a thread from last year. Does anyone know our 2021 prospects on the top 100 or from his mid-season update? I'm curious if anyone fell off.

If prospects were randomly distributed for each times then you'd have 3.3 per team in the top 100 with placements at 15, 45, 75 (and 105, if you had rankings to 120). So based on that we're a bit better than average, though if your are weighting it then higher prospects are certainly valued more heavily.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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May 23, 2014
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I did a search on SoSH and couldn't find a thread from last year. Does anyone know our 2021 prospects on the top 100 or from his mid-season update? I'm curious if anyone fell off.

If prospects were randomly distributed for each times then you'd have 3.3 per team in the top 100 with placements at 15, 45, 75 (and 105, if you had rankings to 120). So based on that we're a bit better than average, though if your are weighting it then higher prospects are certainly valued more heavily.
I believe he had Downs at 56, Casas at 87, and Duran at 93 last year. I can’t find a mid season update
 

nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
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I'm reading the article, and the writeups are really good. I believe it's acceptable to quote the Red Sox players' blurbs; please delete if I'm mistaken about that.

18. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Boston Red Sox
Age: 19 | 6-3 | 188 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 4 in 2021

Previous ranking: Ineligible

Mayer was the best high school prospect in the 2021 draft class, and the Red Sox were ecstatic to get him with the No. 4 pick, landing a high-upside hitter at one of the most important positions on the field. Mayer repeats his swing well, with good balance throughout, and his strong wrists and forearms point to more future power than his wiry frame might imply. Some small swing changes to help him transfer his weight through contact could unlock that power in short order, even before he fills out. He has excellent hands and strong lateral range at shortstop, with no doubt he stays there and the potential to end up plus. He showed solid command of the strike zone in the Florida Complex League this summer and had the advantage of facing better competition as a high schooler in California than most hitters elsewhere in the country, so there’s cause to believe he’ll be a solid on-base guy, as well. There’s a lot to work with here on top of a very strong foundation of defensive and offensive skills, giving Mayer a solid floor as a soft regular and the upside of a No. 2 hitter who saves 5 to 10 runs a year with his glove.

37. Nick Yorke, 2B, Boston Red Sox
Age: 20 | 6-0 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 17 in 2020

Previous ranking: Unranked

The most maligned pick of the 2020 draft by far went out and proved all of the criticism — yes, including mine — wrong with a .325/.412/.516 line across Low A and High A, especially impressive for a 19-year-old who’d barely played since 2019. Yorke has a fantastic and simple right-handed swing that helps him use the middle of the field and gives him superlative coverage of the strike zone; he’s showed above-average power already, probably lacking the projection for much more but with 15-20 homers a reasonable expectation for his major-league power output. He’s limited to second base by a below-average arm and average speed, although he’s a better runner underway than out of the box. It’s an extremely impressive bat across the board, from the swing to the understanding of the zone to the ability to drive the ball to the gaps, and with no reason to think he won’t stay at second base, he projects as at least an above-average regular there, with batting average champion upside.

56. Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox
Age: 22 | 6-4 | 252 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 26 in 2018

Previous ranking: 87

Casas made some small changes to his setup last year, but the bigger shift was how he worked the count, especially getting into his legs more when he was ahead in the count so he could drive the ball more consistently. He still has a strong two-strike approach to put the ball in play, with great contact rates for a corner power bat — he actually cut his strikeout rate from 2019 to 2021 despite two promotions and the interruption of a trip to the Olympics. After some experiments at third, Casas only played first last year, and that’s going to be his best position. There should be another gear of power here, and he might end up a .280/.370/.520 sort of bat at first base, with 25-30 homers a year.

86. Brayan Bello, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Previous ranking: Unranked

Bello can run his fastball up to 100 mph, and pitches at 95-97 with some feel, although he still has a fair amount of development to go before he’s going to be a big-league starter. He’s a four-pitch guy who needs those offspeed weapons because hitters can get on his fastball even with its velocity, which emphasizes the need for him to further work on his changeup (although he had no real platoon split last year) or perhaps try a splitter. His slider can get up to 90 mph and should be a plus pitch in time. His arm is fast, but there’s some effort and he has a smaller frame, similar to that of the late Yordano Ventura in physique and arm speed. There’s definite reliever risk, but if he moves to the bullpen he’ll probably be 97-100 with a slider up to 90-92, and he has mid-rotation starter upside if he can improve both his fastball command and the quality of his secondaries.
 

The Talented Allen Ripley

holden
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Law did a follow-up article today on 14 prospects who just missed the Top 100 cut, both Downs and Duran made his list.

Jeter Downs, SS/2B, Boston Red Sox
Age: 23 | 5-11 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 32 in 2017

Downs jumped two levels to Triple-A Worcester last year, and it didn’t take, as he hit .191/.272/.333 in 99 games for the Paws… Woosox, I guess. He made less contact than before and did less on contact — he’d been a doubles machine in 2019, but last year couldn’t even do that, with his hits going for doubles at half the rate of the previous year. He wasn’t making the same kind of contact, even against the more hitter-friendly major-league ball. Scouts I asked questioned whether he was just discouraged by the tough season and that perhaps it snowballed on him. It’s not a swing issue, and he showed signs of life when he went to the AFL in October, taking good at-bats and hitting several balls hard (granted, the pitching out there was awful). He played mostly shortstop, but there’s broad consensus he can’t play there in the majors, while he’s shown 55 defense at second. For a prospect whose calling card was always his hit tool, however, this kind of performance is especially concerning. If it’s just a fluke, perhaps from the aggressive promotion, then he can still be an above-average regular at second base.

Jarren Duran, OF, Boston Red Sox
Age: 25 | 6-2 | 212 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 220 in 2018

I still think Duran’s going to be a good big leaguer, but his production in the majors in 2021 was hard to explain away. Granted, it was just 112 PA, but when your walk and strikeout rates look just like Billy Hamilton’s, you might have a problem. Duran reworked his swing during the shutdown to get to more power, as prior to that he was a low-walk slap hitter with plus speed, and it paid off in Triple A, where he hit 16 homers in 60 games — which is more homers than he had hit previously in the minors, fall league, college, and collegiate summer ball combined. A bad month or so doesn’t ruin a prospect’s outlook, and Duran still has above-average regular upside between his speed (and potential for plus defense, which we didn’t see last year) and power. The high-leverage swing may mean he swings-and-misses enough to cancel out some of that added value, especially if he continues to have problems with good velocity as he did in that cup of coffee in the majors.
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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I'm so pumped due to what I see is a pretty loaded farm system. The last time I felt this excited was when Mookie, et al, were in the minors.

The Sox have power, bats, position players of all varieties, and even pitching in the pipeline.
 

billy ashley

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Jul 15, 2005
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So... 6 in the top 114? That's pretty great, even if the two JDs have meaningful question marks.
Yeah, especially since both Downs and Duran have skill sets that could be adapted to bench roles in the event that they don't pan out. Downs looked good at SS this past season. If worst-case scenario, the contact issues persist, he could still be a major league contributor as a utility player. Duran and his elite speed could be a useful bench piece if he ever figures out how to play a decent OF, even never fixes issues with his approach/ high fastballs.
 

Bosoxian

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Aug 17, 2021
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Somebody (Paul Toboni maybe?) told the story on the excellent SoxProspects podcast a few months ago.
Thanks for the pointer. Turns out they had Yorke targeted for the 2nd round and when they lost the 2nd round pick due to the apple watch fiasco they decided to grab him in the first round.
 

EricFeczko

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Apr 26, 2014
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Yeah, especially since both Downs and Duran have skill sets that could be adapted to bench roles in the event that they don't pan out. Downs looked good at SS this past season. If worst-case scenario, the contact issues persist, he could still be a major league contributor as a utility player. Duran and his elite speed could be a useful bench piece if he ever figures out how to play a decent OF, even never fixes issues with his approach/ high fastballs.
Alternatively, even Downs pans out, he may only be needed for a few years -- and could serve as a good trade to replenish the farm system when others (e.g. Yorke) take over.
 

cantor44

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Dec 23, 2020
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Alternatively, even Downs pans out, he may only be needed for a few years -- and could serve as a good trade to replenish the farm system when others (e.g. Yorke) take over.
At the rate Yorke is going and how well he's doing it - he may well be starting in the majors in 2024. With Arroyo around, not sure any other bridge is needed ...But if Downs can bring his game back, Sox do have another trade chip!