I’m really rooting for the Knicks to overtake Cleveland for the 3 seed here. I know Cleveland with Mitchell is nothing to sneeze at, but I’d really prefer to see a Knicks/Bucks matchup in the 2nd round than having to go Knicks then Bucks. I think Knicks/Bucks is close to a tossup, if they are healthy. And if the Bucks survive, I think they‘d be worn down pretty good.
2023-24 Celtics
- Thread starter 128
- Start date
I hear you, but man it feels like Thibs is just running that team into the ground. I'm not sure they'd get past Orlando.
The East seeding is truly wide open. No idea who is going to end up 6-7-8.
The Knicks had some built-in rest time due to injuries and Thibs has largely been sane with his minutes this year.
Except for Brunson. Decent chance he falls apart like the Blues Brothers car at some point by the second round.
Two guys -- McBride and Hart -- played 48 and 47 minutes on Monday at GS. Not an OT game.
Guys, 2-3-4 is going to be Cleveland, Milwaukee, NYK. We're going to have to beat two of them. We shouldn't be afraid of it, they're probably despairing of having to play us earlier than they might.
Teams 5+ are cannon fodder at this point, and I include Philly in that unless Embiid's knee has a resurrection worthy of Easter. So it doesn't matter who gets those booby prizes. We're probably going to sweep whoever it is we get in the first round, maybe even if Miami.
I'll say last night made me respect Milwaukee a bit more, though. Portis and Middleton brought more than I thought they had. And our offense did go flat for a while against the new looks in the 4th. They hit 3s (17/35, 49%) and so did we (18/40, 45%), so that didn't skew things.
- part of it was Lillard getting layups on basically every iso possession he took. If we don't have anyone who can stay in front of him and contest at the rim, we need a new strategy there. Yes I know we'll have Holiday, but White is frankly quicker than Holiday 1-on-1 and yet seemed to give Dame no problems at all, other than one block (which might not even have been on Lillard) and one drive in the 1st where he got a Lillard rim miss without fouling.
- our Zone offense usually only looks good with Horford in the middle because his passing and decisions are sharper. KP wasn't stressing their shape, and his post ups were blitzed successfully. I'd put Horford in the middle and KP on the perimeter, let him get it while they're rotating and then drive a few times, see how that goes.
- we did get a pretty favorable whistle last night, including like 3-4 moving screens that usually would only be called once per game ("ok, you got your call, now shut up and play ball"). They probably could've reviewed the Jae Crowder step-over for a taunting T, but overall we probably got a 90th-percentile ref job last night as far as it favoring us. On the road this could be a bigger problem, if we're relying on getting 50-50 calls a lot.
- biggest problem for us, other than Lillard, was probably Lopez. As Scal pointed out, he wasn't as reliably in one or two places on O and D as he was pre-Doc, they were moving him around a lot more. KP clowned him a few times but he also made a bunch of tough 3s, got a bunch of boards, our double bigs didn't really make him uncomfortable much.
- we also allowed a bunch of uncontested put back boards. Yeah, sometimes the ball just goes their way, but I'm talking follow dunks even with bigs near the basket. That's a vision / focus thing, it's not just luck.
Overall, I'm not selling my Celtics stock, but Milwaukee definitely looks more legit to me than they did before this game. Previously I wouldve been surprised to see them beat Cleveland or NY (if they're the 2/3), but now I wouldn't be.
Teams 5+ are cannon fodder at this point, and I include Philly in that unless Embiid's knee has a resurrection worthy of Easter. So it doesn't matter who gets those booby prizes. We're probably going to sweep whoever it is we get in the first round, maybe even if Miami.
I'll say last night made me respect Milwaukee a bit more, though. Portis and Middleton brought more than I thought they had. And our offense did go flat for a while against the new looks in the 4th. They hit 3s (17/35, 49%) and so did we (18/40, 45%), so that didn't skew things.
- part of it was Lillard getting layups on basically every iso possession he took. If we don't have anyone who can stay in front of him and contest at the rim, we need a new strategy there. Yes I know we'll have Holiday, but White is frankly quicker than Holiday 1-on-1 and yet seemed to give Dame no problems at all, other than one block (which might not even have been on Lillard) and one drive in the 1st where he got a Lillard rim miss without fouling.
- our Zone offense usually only looks good with Horford in the middle because his passing and decisions are sharper. KP wasn't stressing their shape, and his post ups were blitzed successfully. I'd put Horford in the middle and KP on the perimeter, let him get it while they're rotating and then drive a few times, see how that goes.
- we did get a pretty favorable whistle last night, including like 3-4 moving screens that usually would only be called once per game ("ok, you got your call, now shut up and play ball"). They probably could've reviewed the Jae Crowder step-over for a taunting T, but overall we probably got a 90th-percentile ref job last night as far as it favoring us. On the road this could be a bigger problem, if we're relying on getting 50-50 calls a lot.
- biggest problem for us, other than Lillard, was probably Lopez. As Scal pointed out, he wasn't as reliably in one or two places on O and D as he was pre-Doc, they were moving him around a lot more. KP clowned him a few times but he also made a bunch of tough 3s, got a bunch of boards, our double bigs didn't really make him uncomfortable much.
- we also allowed a bunch of uncontested put back boards. Yeah, sometimes the ball just goes their way, but I'm talking follow dunks even with bigs near the basket. That's a vision / focus thing, it's not just luck.
Overall, I'm not selling my Celtics stock, but Milwaukee definitely looks more legit to me than they did before this game. Previously I wouldve been surprised to see them beat Cleveland or NY (if they're the 2/3), but now I wouldn't be.
There is only one NYK in top 20 in minutes per game, Brunson at #18 with 35.2 minutes per game. He is #17 in total minutes played.
I agree that Thibs as times can be a maniac, but the list of guys ahead of Brunson on both lists are a whole bunch of all-NBA players and MVP candidates. Strangely enough teams want their best players playing lots of minutes. A smattering of guys who have played more per game and more total minutes - Luka, SGA, Durant, Tatum, and everyone's favorite all NBA guy who is leading in both per game and total, Demar Derozan
I agree that Thibs as times can be a maniac, but the list of guys ahead of Brunson on both lists are a whole bunch of all-NBA players and MVP candidates. Strangely enough teams want their best players playing lots of minutes. A smattering of guys who have played more per game and more total minutes - Luka, SGA, Durant, Tatum, and everyone's favorite all NBA guy who is leading in both per game and total, Demar Derozan
Um. Josh Hart. He may not be top 10 on the year. But Thibs is absolutely running him into the ground. His is averaging 42.8 MPG in his last 13. Only twice has he gone under 40: 39:04, and 38:54.
It's the playoffs, it's supposed to be hard.
That said, I'm not convinced the Knicks beat Orlando.
I don't know what you are talking about with the officiating. The moving screens were textbook and they totally swallowed the whistle in the fourth quarter on some very obvious fouls by Milwaukee. I tend to focus way less on the officials than most here but last night was an outlier to me.
On the defense against Lillard, I wasn't watching the game as closely as I could have been, but I didn't see Dame blowing by White very often in Iso situations. Instead, it was Jaylen picking up Lillard at half court. The Bucks would then have Porzingis' man (often Bobby Portis) set the screen high, which took Jaylen out of the play and put KP in no man's land. KP's trying to play drop coverage, but he can't let Lillard walk into a wide open three, so he comes out higher to guard the three point line, and Lillard just put his head down and went to the rim. He got KP backpedaling on several drives to the basket, and at that point he's either getting a layup, free throws or both.
Charles Lee talked to Abby about it at half time, and possibly making adjustments, but it continued to happen into the second half. There's certainly some tradeoffs - they were really making Lillard work, which is a good idea - but by and large it wasn't effective.
Every once in a while, I'll get concerned that our guards have a hard time staying in front of small, quick point guards, and then I'll remember that we have a guy who can do it, and his name is Jayson Tatum. In the playoffs, Joe will play that card if he has to.
I agree that the Bucks definitely showed something last night. A few thoughts:
- This team looks totally different with Giannis, for better and for worse. A few of the concerns here are partly alleviated by Giannis being on the floor, I think. Lillard has a much tougher time getting to the cup when there is a big that can sag off of Giannis to help. Lopez is always less of a threat when he is trying to space with Giannis in the mix as well, because his defender doesn't need to sag, Giannis's guy can. Obviously they're better with Giannis, but when he's not out there and they go 5-out and shoot 49% from 3... that's probably better offense than anything you'll see, even with Giannis.
- When it comes to the zone, I think KP is actually maybe our worst option for playing in the middle. Al and Luke are better, quicker decision makers out of that spot, and even Tillman from his tape looks like a decisive decision maker/passer. They probably think of KP and his foul line shot as ideal for that spot, but his slow/methodical style post up gets him in trouble with traps way too easily against a zone. This feels fixable, either with KP changing his approach and/or using him in the middle less. For all the reasons discussed prior during the season, I think any team running zone other than as a change up for a couple possessions here and there is going to get shredded.
- On the refs, it's crazy how much of an in-season change we've seen with the whistles. It's like the playoffs started at the ASB. I'm glad the team has some time to get used to it rather than getting surprised by the change in the playoffs which occasionally seems to happen. I just hope what we're seeing now stays consistent.
Everyone has a hard time staying in front of Damian Lillard. This isn't a weakness in our current guard rotation that has three guys who man up just fine on Lillard as things go. Doesn't help that the guy can also launch from halfcourt. He's a problem.
On the plus side, he gives back plenty of points too.
Giannis and Lillard are two of the best players in the world. Lopez is good. Middleton is good. Portis is a guy every team would love to have. Milwaukee is good and they have championship experience. I think Boston is better, but it wouldn't shock me at all if Milwaukee beat them, yes, even in a seven game series. Smart money is on Boston there but it's no (pardon the expression) slam dunk at all. The Celtics, should they play the Bucks, will have to bring their A game. Which is fine. The playoffs are supposed to be hard. Winning a championship is supposed to be hard.
Maybe I am wearing Celtics colored glasses here but I came away with a very different impression of the Bucks as a playoff opponent after last night.
If the Celtics lose to Milwaukee in a 7 game series, I will be absolutely floored. There are more weaknesses on that team that can be exploited in a 7 game series.
Giannis is All-World but the team has very little usable wing depth/depth period. I just don't see it
If the Celtics lose to Milwaukee in a 7 game series, I will be absolutely floored. There are more weaknesses on that team that can be exploited in a 7 game series.
Giannis is All-World but the team has very little usable wing depth/depth period. I just don't see it
Basketball is a funny game. You can take the best players and put them on the same team but if they don't fit. . . .
Agree with everything you said about Giannis and Dame. They are both great players but as of yet, they haven't figured out how to fit together. From what I've read, Dame is really trying to fit in but as you point out, Giannis makes the court smaller for him. And the fact that neither of them apparently likes to be the roll man in a PnR is something the coaches have not yet figured out.
As for MIL's zone, I'm not that worried about it. I mean BOS was playing without Hauser and Jrue - their two best 3P shooters. I also agree with you that I think BOS will shred zones come playoffs.
Also agreeing with your post and want to add that it seemed to me that MIL was way more up for this game than BOS was. One thing about Doc - by simplifying schemes, he gets his teams to play really hard on a night-in, night-out basis. But when the playoffs roll around, he really doesn't have many adjustments he can make.
Nope.Jrue will start just like the regular season assuming good health from everyone.
Lilliard had some awesome shots last night, of course, he does that a lot - so it is a bit to be expected. I was a bit disappointed a few times in Jaylen keeping track of Bobby Portis - maybe it didn't happen that often, there was just one play especially when I felt like Brown really needed to have done a better job of sticking with him.
I don't know what it is about Brook Lopez but I'm always surprised he's good. Maybe my mind is just stuck on who he was when he entered the league and I just can't seem to adjust to the player he has become.
I don't know what it is about Brook Lopez but I'm always surprised he's good. Maybe my mind is just stuck on who he was when he entered the league and I just can't seem to adjust to the player he has become.
At this point they are a bit of one in the same. These are professional athletes on the tail end of a long season.
Everybody seems to be jumping on the Knicks bandwagon and basically ignoring what the Cavs have done (and I assume 90% of that is due to the Knicks beating them in round 1 last year), but they've had just as many injury issues, have played the Bucks even in their matchups this year, and seem more likely to be healthy come playoffs. I'm fine with either one.
The Cavs also have Garland and Mitchell, who are terrifying as "can go off for 40 anytime and you can't do much about it" threats.
Roughly
Celtics win over 50% of their games by 10+ points (34 games)
Celtics lose 5% of their games by 10+ points (4 games)
They win 67% of games decided by less than 10 points (21-10)
Celtics win over 50% of their games by 10+ points (34 games)
Celtics lose 5% of their games by 10+ points (4 games)
They win 67% of games decided by less than 10 points (21-10)
A while ago, I noted here that the Celtics have the best record in the league in games in which they trail at halftime. This continues: they are now 8-5 in such games, and every other team has a losing record in such games. I was poking around with the standings on nba.com and noticed that they list records in games decided by 3 points "or less" [fewer]. I don't know if you've heard, but the Celtics' biggest weak point is their clutch play, or so they say. This should be borne out in these standings, so I looked: Boston is 5-5 in such games. (Insert small sample size alert here.) The best team, by win percentage in close games? I bet you can't guess: it's Charlotte, at 6-1. The Pelicans are 1-6 and the Warriors are 4-10 in such games, worst for teams with overall winning records.
I am not a statistician, but records in games decided by 3 points or fewer looks pretty random. The only way Boston looks bad in these games is that their .500 record is much worse than their overall record. Of course many playoff-bound teams have worse winning percentages in these games than their overall record. Atlanta, LAL, and Miami are the main exceptions (along with a few other teams whose 3-pt-winning-pct numbers are within .01 of their overall winning pct, like Dallas (4-2 in close games, .580 overall).
I am not a statistician, but records in games decided by 3 points or fewer looks pretty random. The only way Boston looks bad in these games is that their .500 record is much worse than their overall record. Of course many playoff-bound teams have worse winning percentages in these games than their overall record. Atlanta, LAL, and Miami are the main exceptions (along with a few other teams whose 3-pt-winning-pct numbers are within .01 of their overall winning pct, like Dallas (4-2 in close games, .580 overall).
Boston is 1st in 4th quarter net rating and 5th in net rating in clutch situations. It's absolutely not a problem, but when compared to the rest of their performance (1st in offensive rating, 2nd in defensive rating, 3rd best net rating in NBA history), it's the only thing based solely on this season's performance that it's even worth attempting to nitpick. Denver is better at it (Milwaukee might be, too) and those are the teams most likely to stop Boston from winning it all.
FTR, they were 15th in 4th quarter net rating and 26th in clutch net rating in 2022 (legitimately bad), and 11th in 4th quarter net rating and 8th in clutch net rating last year (solid, but not great). They have clearly improved tremendously in 4th quarter and clutch situations, which seems obvious given that Tatum/Brown have matured and the personnel has improved, but a lot of the general media and public are holding onto older impressions of this team. It will take a title run to change that perception, for better or worse.
It shows up in the eye test as well. Milwaukee got close at the end with some bigtime shot-making, and then the Cs ran some decisive actions, not too late in the shot clock, and scored enough to mostly put the game away (not before some more ridiculous Bucks shot-making after that).
They have 4 or 5 things they can do well late, they get into the actions cleanly, and there's way less aimless dribbling and clock-running. Huge credit to the players and staff wrt improvements since 2022.
That the Cs allowed a run and then were able to hold off the Bucks strikes me as a very positive experience to have had prior to the playoffs. Granted, it would have been better had they continued to play their game and not bogged down with isolations.* And handled the zone better than they did. Still, it's good that they know from a recent example that they can take a punch and steady themselves. And Jaylen Brown hitting a few key free throws may help his confidence, as well.
All that said, I hope that they all feel the same way that Jaylen does about playing faster in the 4th quarter and not falling into iso-hero ball when it gets close and late. And I hope that his comments don't reflect a rift, even a subtle one, between him and Jason Tatum. I'm not referring to anything deep there. I'm referring to a difference of opinion on how things should run in late game situations. There's no reason why Tatum should be any less aggressive at the end of games but there's also no reason why the ball should go to him for one on one play, instead of moving it around and hunting match-ups and the most open look, which is what happens when that offense is really clicking.
* I know that the Bucks' shot making also had a lot to do with what happened; I'm just focusing on the Cs right now.
All that said, I hope that they all feel the same way that Jaylen does about playing faster in the 4th quarter and not falling into iso-hero ball when it gets close and late. And I hope that his comments don't reflect a rift, even a subtle one, between him and Jason Tatum. I'm not referring to anything deep there. I'm referring to a difference of opinion on how things should run in late game situations. There's no reason why Tatum should be any less aggressive at the end of games but there's also no reason why the ball should go to him for one on one play, instead of moving it around and hunting match-ups and the most open look, which is what happens when that offense is really clicking.
* I know that the Bucks' shot making also had a lot to do with what happened; I'm just focusing on the Cs right now.
It's funny that people complain about not moving the ball, and ignore that they DID move the ball, bricked a ton of wide-open 3s, and then sealed the game by Tatum instead going iso against a favorable matchup.
Time to tap the xkcd comic once again....
Time to tap the xkcd comic once again....
It's not all or nothing and I didn't mean to imply that it was. And yes, they did miss a ton of shots. But the ball was not moving as much as it did earlier and they were not hunting mismatches as much. To me, it's a matter of degree, and it looked familiar to other situations this year when they blew large leads in that respect. Not that there have been many of those situations. My take was that it bogged down more than it had earlier but I didn't mean to gloss over the missed shots.
It feels like when people complain about the Cs not moving the ball they aren't considering what the other team is doing. In my watching experience, the opposing defense is often the catalyst for offenses getting bogged down. Not always but the majority of the time. YRMV.
I was more referring to general narratives. Didn't mean to subtweet you too hard, since your take was more reasonable.
I think the fact that JT told White (I think) to pass the ball to JB in a horns set at the end of the game means thete is no rift.
That was a nifty piece of Bball IQ from JT there.
If the Celtics beat Detroit and Chicago, they clinch the #1 seed in the East. They've already clinched a tie for head-to-head vs. Milwaukee. Two more wins against Eastern Conference opponents clinches a tie for the next tiebreaker. They have already clinched the tiebreaker after that one, which is record against Eastern playoff teams.
Yeah, JB had Beasley on him and Tatum instructed White to pass it to him
That halfcourt offense number for the Cs is obscene. Impressive stuff.
Haven’t been watching the Hawks, but that defense without Trae…
Weird to see the Lakers giving so much up, too. Would have thought transition D was their ish.
Haven’t been watching the Hawks, but that defense without Trae…
Weird to see the Lakers giving so much up, too. Would have thought transition D was their ish.
Tatum getting more rest is nice to see. Weird to see Holiday out so long, but I'm glad to rest him up, and I imagine they want him, Tatum and Horford to play the 2nd half of the B2B.
Either way, we're in full-on "manage things out until the playoffs" mode now.
View: https://twitter.com/John_Karalis/status/1771290277497458997?s=20
Either way, we're in full-on "manage things out until the playoffs" mode now.
View: https://twitter.com/John_Karalis/status/1771290277497458997?s=20
Nice video on the Celtics' use of flare screens to get Tatum/Brown the ball with an advantage, or dynamic guys like Jrue rolling in the lane. I don't think CJM gets enough credit for the many actions they've put in to leverage what JB and JT are good at, as opposed to whining "can't play 2-man game; the other team will just switch!"
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aISdRk5lvIg
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aISdRk5lvIg
+1...Full-on TOP6 shrink-wrap
Fine-tuning the bench by getting Tillman, Kornet, Hauser, PP extended minutes heading into the playoffs.
The ability to dominate teams while only playing 3 of our top 6 on any given night is impressive and will really help as the team can keep cruising into the playoffs, get rest, but not have any period where they “take games off” while still playing in them.
The Celtics are now back up to an .800 winning percentage. I don’t see any reason why they can’t win at least 9/12 down the stretch and close out as a 65+ win team. Given the psychological impact of multiples of 5, I’d guess that’s a soft target a lot of the guys on the team would like to hit.
Doing the math in my head, they need to outscore by about 16 points a game the rest of the way to get to the top of that list.
I'd like to see CJM go full squad against NOLA, OKC, SAC, MIL, and NYK...otherwise split the TOP6
There is going to be a fair amount of jockeying 2-8 in the EC and 1-11 in the WC.
Home Court + additional rest + bench development is a nice advantage.
The resurrection of the 90s whistle seems to be impacting White and Porzingis the most to my eye. He's been getting a ton of contact on his post ups they aren't calling and he isn't great finishing though the contact.
Yeah, Porzingis is getting an awful whistle in the new NBA. They're letting guys push his body and whack his arms while he shoots.
I've made this point elsewhere, but tonight really drove it home for me. While JT gives the team the highest ceiling, JB brings the floor up more than him. JT has better tools to take over a game, but JB's ability to operate within the flow of the team game and play off others really balances play, and is becoming impossible to defend. They've both settled into 1A/1B roles that do different things to help the team
Tatum is one of the biggest floor raisers in the league, it’s been one of his calling cards, along with doing his thing within the flow of the game.
Jaylen has been awesome, but I really can’t see the argument. He’s always been more of a force the action kind of guy, as well.
Yeah, you can put Tatum on any team, and it's probably a playoff team. Detroit, San Antonio, wherever, he could definitely raise the floor.
Jaylen is just really good, and it's good to have really good players. Not sure there's more to it than that, beyond the fact that he's very scaleable and fits on both ends in any lineup.
man I feel the opposite. JB is definitely more of the guy who on a bad team would put up 30 a game and still they'd lose a lot. he's not lifting other players up but his skills are definitely complementary to what Tatum does well.