2024 Playoffs Western Conference First Round: (3) Minnesota Timberwolves vs (6) Phoenix Suns
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No idea why Vogel brought him back in while he's clearly been having an existential crisis all night.
He's gonna be sore tomorrow after turning both ankles here in the 4th. I don't think either looked too bad though.
Fate seems to be intervening on a Final Destination level to prevent the Wolves from winning their first series in decades (injuries to a coach, Ant’s scare, Conley’s brain fart) but the Suns are already in Cancún.
Beal has a NTC. Hard to think of candidates that would be desperate and dumb enough to take him AND also be a destination that Beal would accept.
This is the most relevant Minnesota has been as a sports town in a generation. Well, the Vikings did make the NFCCG one season.
He's not 2021 playoffs Durant anymore, that's for sure. Just not that scary anymore, and it's hard for me to fully analyze why. It seems like the threat of the 3 isn't there so much, and you can just body him into taking tough 2s with single coverage. He makes a ton of them, since he's Kevin Durant, but it doesn't compromise the defense.
Would Detroit trade for Beal into its cap space?
Beal waiving his no trade to go to Detroit would be shocking, but maybe he thinks he's better off under the radar.
You just got swept and don’t have a first round pick until 2030. Welcome to purgatory, Phoenix.
It's wild that the team that gave it all up for Rudy Gobert is in a way better position than the team that gave it all up for Kevin Durant.
I think it is just a combination of injuries/age that have robbed him of just enough quickness/explosiveness that isn't necessarily super noticeable, but makes him just a little bit more guardable.
Durant is a very strange player. I think he's a real perfectionist, hates taking "bad" shots, and also only takes shots he is very comfortable taking. The lack of three point volume from him is very odd, when you compare him to almost any other player with his skillset. He took 200 less threes than Tatum did this year, and both guys played about the same number of games.
But the real issue with Phoenix is that the surrounding cast to Durant and Booker stinks. The Timberwolves showed that having role players like McDaniels, Conley, Reid and Alexander-Walker are hugely valuable while the Suns relying on a lot of unproven players and guys that are not that good (Allen's injury obviously was a big blow for that reason). No size beside Nurkic (which added to Durant's burden) and no point guard--it was underwhelming all season and the playoff results were pretty predictable.
I said this when the Beal trade first happened--but I think the lesson from Denver being successful was that you want to have 1-2 All-NBA guys, and then a bunch of very good role players who importantly are very comfortable in their role and not under any illusions that they are going to be huge stars. KCP/Gordon/Porter are perfect complementary pieces to Jokic and Murray--they all do valuable things for the team and have different roles, and accept those roles with a positive attitude.
I want to make a list of players who are All-Star Role Players, just perfect complimentary players to very good teams.
KCP
MPJ
Gordon
D. White
Jrue
Porzingis
Lu Dort
KJ McDaniels
Lopez
Conley
In his Book of Basketball, Simmons wrote about a part of the NBA Hall of Fame that should recognize role players who played on an inordinate amount of great teams. Players like Byron Scott, Bruce Bowen, Derek Fisher, Horace Grant, Ron Harper, Steve Kerr, Mo Cheeks, etc. I always thought that was a cool idea.
I think part of the problem is that by personality and style Durant simply isn't a "number one' even if by skill, effort and output he is. So he isn't (and hasn't really ever) been a 'take over' guy with consistency, and whether Booker will or won't be that guy he isn't either. He's amazing, he's flexible, he's a team player, he can do so much (and does). But he also is who he is.
So you have a team with a math disadvantage (comparatively few threes), a weak defense, mediocre depth, and a lack of true ability to lead/drvie through it. The talent and the effort are there---but they don't pull it together in execution.
People will laugh at this, but it's a team that nees a Marcus Smart type. And probably to reshuffle the deck.
My honest guess? Durant will ask out and they'll try to soft-rebuild around Booker. But who knows...it's a really tough situation for them with no assets at all and an older, underachieving group that doesn't fit all that well together
So you have a team with a math disadvantage (comparatively few threes), a weak defense, mediocre depth, and a lack of true ability to lead/drvie through it. The talent and the effort are there---but they don't pull it together in execution.
People will laugh at this, but it's a team that nees a Marcus Smart type. And probably to reshuffle the deck.
My honest guess? Durant will ask out and they'll try to soft-rebuild around Booker. But who knows...it's a really tough situation for them with no assets at all and an older, underachieving group that doesn't fit all that well together
While the rest of your post is basically the opposite of the Celtics, I can't help but read this sentence and wonder if we'll be replacing "Durant" with "Tatum" at some point in the future.
Yeah, I do think it is possible that is all said about Tatum. I expect some won't agree with it as to Durant (who, to be clear, is an amazing and unique player)!
I think Tatum has shown some different traits already, and he's still very young. I can't prove it, but I believe a factor (maybe small, maybe not) in moving on from Smart was to really empower Tatum and Brown in different ways and to my eyes this year that has borne some fruit. I feel good about Tatum's leadership trajectory though it's also not quite a finished product.
I think Tatum has shown some different traits already, and he's still very young. I can't prove it, but I believe a factor (maybe small, maybe not) in moving on from Smart was to really empower Tatum and Brown in different ways and to my eyes this year that has borne some fruit. I feel good about Tatum's leadership trajectory though it's also not quite a finished product.
A Durant trade to NYK or OKC would, to me, be the way to go. Obviously need to haggle over the return, etc. and his willingness to leave, but the WC is stacked, the fate of the current Suns was sealed with the Beal trade and Durant's value depreciates every year.
I don't think KD will ask out - it will look really bad if he asks out yet again - but I'm sure Darryl Morey keeps texting his agent about all of the cap room PHI has.
Fair; Durant's history is also to be less direct abotu these things and see if the environment will evolve the way he hopes it will.
I do suspect that Phoenix will spend a lot of the next couple months trying to figure out if reloading for next year makes sense, or whether they should cash in what they can of assets. I am not sure what I think, or what they will conclude.
I do suspect that Phoenix will spend a lot of the next couple months trying to figure out if reloading for next year makes sense, or whether they should cash in what they can of assets. I am not sure what I think, or what they will conclude.
Philly's cap space is a bit of a mirage. Also there isn't a chance I would trade Durant to 76ers for two first round picks when I can get a way bigger haul from OKC or New York.
Not sure what PHI has to trade but obviously OKC can match or exceed anything if they really wanted to.
Agree that the odds of KD going to PHI are pretty slim unless he wants to go there and PHO wants to play nice with him.
Like WBCD noted, one thing we can be sure is that Daryl Morey will be pursuing every even slightly possibly maybe available top tier guy this offseason. He'll probably fail at all of them, but we can be sure the ask will be made.
There is absolutely no reason for PHO to play nice. It is one thing when you are Brooklyn and you signed him (which I mean I still disagree with but there is some merit), it is another when you trade for him. Also why in god's name would Durant want to go to Philly instead of OKC or NY? Hey why don't you go to the team with less chances to win but you are clearly 100% not the 1A or 1B.
Ok I have a question for y’all. Over the last 24 hours I’ve read that LeBron isn’t a #1 anymore, Embiid is a “loser” and now Durant isn’t a #1. I’m sure if given the opportunity there would be cases for other elite players like Doncic or Brunson not being a #1. So how many #1’s are there in the league now? 4?5? If you don’t have one of these guys is your team destined for failure and by failure what would that look like?
There are teams like the Bucks or Sixers who are called failures but other teams without anyone close to having a #1 (or even a #2) like the Magic, Pacers, are said to have a bright future despite not having that #1? The Suns were a failure sure….they also managed to turn a team that started Tyler Ulis, Dragan Bender, Josh Jackson and Marquese Chriss each over 35 games into a Booker/Durant/Beal contender to start the season only five years later? Is that really a failure too?
There are teams like the Bucks or Sixers who are called failures but other teams without anyone close to having a #1 (or even a #2) like the Magic, Pacers, are said to have a bright future despite not having that #1? The Suns were a failure sure….they also managed to turn a team that started Tyler Ulis, Dragan Bender, Josh Jackson and Marquese Chriss each over 35 games into a Booker/Durant/Beal contender to start the season only five years later? Is that really a failure too?
You went further than I did, but I don't disagree. The numbers don't really back this up, but there is just something from watching Durant were he seems hesitant to really ruthlessly destroy the other team, the way the absolute best players do. He's so skilled, he comes through in the clutch, but he has a comparatively low ceiling when compared with his other elite peers when it comes to destroying the opposition, and that maybe explains the lack of team success outside of Golden State.
I think it really comes down to him being a bit of a perfectionist and obsessed with efficiency and playing basketball the right way--sometimes you just got to come out in a big game and chuck shots, especially if the rest of your team is struggling. Edwards was actually really bad in the first half yesterday, but he kept firing away until he found his rhythm and finished with a hugely impressive game.
I do disagree about Booker though--he finished with 49 points in an elimination game. He was the best player on a team that made the Finals and was also the best player on a team that went 64-18 during the regular season. I do think he can be the kind of Alpha you need to have on the team, but things have gotten out of whack with literally the entire team shifting around him the last two seasons.
They don't control their own 1st several of those years because of pick swaps. So they have a 1st in 26 and 28 but it probably won't be a good one
I understand your broader point but the Booker/Durant/Beal team was never a contender. And they tore down a team that made the Finals and won 64 regular season games into a team that can't win a playoff game, which I would consider a massive failure.
I think there is a chicken/egg causality issue with some of these arguments you're hearing. It's a fact of recent NBA history that is extremely hard to win a championship without a consensus top-five player. However, being the best player on a Finals-winning team usually results in being considered a top-five NBA player. So there may be people who actually think there are only four or five "true number ones" based on that evidence. I can definitely see the desire to write off Embiid and Durant as number ones, but I don't agree with it. It's probably closer to the truth that there are about fifteen players capable of raising their game to be true number ones, but hindsight actually robs us of the ability to see this.
Kind of a strawman. The Magic and Pacers have bright futures in comparison to where they’ve been. Either franchise would be happy to replicate what the Sixers and Suns have done recently. Some teams, like the Pistons and Wizards of recent years, aren’t even at the point of dreaming yet. Thats a separate conversation from the Sixers and other teams not being able to truly contend at the highest levels of NBA competition.
Right. We all know that it didn't work out the way they had hoped but they were the consensus clear #2 in the WC this preseason and only a tick behind Boston and Denver to win the Championship even if you and I agree that we didn't feel that this would work out great. I'll admit I wasn't as sold that it wouldn't work as you and others but the overall markets had the Suns as top contenders.
I'm pointing at everything that every non-Celtics team does as an abstract failure and I'm not only pointing toward the Suns, In general fans here like to root for the young and cute despite their ceiling being that of the teams/individuals that they tear down. If more time was spent appreciating greatness, even flawed greatness, on the court then they would appreciate this great game even more. It's like a constant ripping of the games greatest players which is a totally weird phenomenon to me. Maybe I'm alone in this line of thought but I dunno, all the negativity in this town sucks.
Yeah, I'm just thinking out loud. So now what if in 2027 the Magice or Pacers add some pieces and are one of the favorites to win the title but those pieces don't mesh and they bounce in the first round having lost many assets in building the team....would they then be considered failures and mocked like the Suns presently are?
Might be a good separate thread---to me it's better discussed in a less binary way than 'true number 1' At least, acknowledging that '1' and 'can be best player on a champion' are a bigger group and a subset of that group.
For example, Embiid is a clear number one for me, you can build a team around him. He also hasn't proven he an drive that team (performance nad leadership wise) to a title. Which is no shocker---outside of LBJ, Curry, Jokic, GA no one else today has really. But he's a 1, even if not someone who has proven it all. Doncic, Tatum also in this group for me.
I am of a different view on Durant...even though he is nearly certain to end up higher on any 'all time NBA' list. I and others have articulated why---to me, he's the greatest and most flexible number two in NBA history. A much better version of Pippen...but not actually an alpha. I know others will have a different view, and I respect I'm likely an outlier on him.
For example, Embiid is a clear number one for me, you can build a team around him. He also hasn't proven he an drive that team (performance nad leadership wise) to a title. Which is no shocker---outside of LBJ, Curry, Jokic, GA no one else today has really. But he's a 1, even if not someone who has proven it all. Doncic, Tatum also in this group for me.
I am of a different view on Durant...even though he is nearly certain to end up higher on any 'all time NBA' list. I and others have articulated why---to me, he's the greatest and most flexible number two in NBA history. A much better version of Pippen...but not actually an alpha. I know others will have a different view, and I respect I'm likely an outlier on him.