3/11 - Peeke Performance

[cshea]

Someone should study on the success rate of pulling your goalie before the last minute. Something tells me 8 minutes early would not pan out. From 200 feet away even.

They did. The analytics say the earlier the goalie pull, the better. Down 1 goal, teams are pulling with 2-3 minutes left. Down 2 around 5. Being down 4-1 with 10:00 left is likely going to be a losing proposition either way.

 

[cshea]

Shattenkirk and Lohrei cannot be paired together going forward.

Their underlyings are actually decent. They are at a 54% xGF% in 175 minutes together at 5x5. Being outscored 9-3 though. Theoretically they're due for positive regression, their PDO is .920.

That said, Peeke is almost assuredly playing on Thursday for one of them.

 

[Salem's Lot]

Their underlyings are actually decent. They are at a 54% xGF% in 175 minutes together at 5x5. Being outscored 9-3 though. Theoretically they're due for positive regression, their PDO is .920.

That said, Peeke is almost assuredly playing on Thursday for one of them.

Wotherspoon maybe as well. It would probably make sense for Lohrei to go back to Providence when Peeke is ready to play and call up a 13th forward.

 

[cshea]

Wotherspoon maybe as well. It would probably make sense for Lohrei to go back to Providence when Peeke is ready to play and call up a 13th forward.

I would actually keep Lohrei around and continue to play him. He's improved in his second call up. He's put up 6 points in 11 games since the call up, with a 51% xGF% in that time. It's also not a fire drill in his own end every game, he's kept the xGA down, especially the last 4-5 games (even with last night). His last 4 games specifically, xGF% being 55%, 74%, 64%, 62%.

I'm sure they'll rotate but I think I'd leave Lohrei in for a little bit and see if this is real.

 

[joe dokes]

They did. The analytics say the earlier the goalie pull, the better. Down 1 goal, teams are pulling with 2-3 minutes left. Down 2 around 5. Being down 4-1 with 10:00 left is likely going to be a losing proposition either way.

The bolded is the key. Not pulling the goalie there is expressing that losing 5-1 is somehow worse than losing 4-1. Its the NFL coach who kicks a 30-yd FG down by 30 in the 4th Q. I was glad Montgomery did it.

 

[Dewey's 'stache]

[/QUOTE]

I would actually keep Lohrei around and continue to play him. He's improved in his second call up. He's put up 6 points in 11 games since the call up, with a 51% xGF% in that time. It's also not a fire drill in his own end every game, he's kept the xGA down, especially the last 4-5 games (even with last night). His last 4 games specifically, xGF% being 55%, 74%, 64%, 62%.

I'm sure they'll rotate but I think I'd leave Lohrei in for a little bit and see if this is real.

. I just want to relay a “Thank you” to CShea for taking the time to post information that helps define, support or refute, and always clarify what we are seeing on the ice. I appreciate it very much.