I know the idea of 6-man rotations have been beat to death here and elsewhere over the last 20 years. But I want to propose a new/old idea: the 4-man rotation.
Considering that most starters are increasingly rarely asked to pitch more than 5 innings anymore, due to health and effectiveness, I wonder about a new take on an old approach, namely a 4-man rotation, where starters are only asked to pitch 4 innings. (I know there may be all sorts of contractual issues, -- let alone ego issues -- due to incentives pegged to wins that only kick in when a starter goes 5 innings, but maybe that's a rule that goes away in 2023.)
On paper, in a season, there are 162 games to start obviously. In an injury-free world, that means no more than 33 starts, with most SP's looking at 30-32. If you assume a 5 inning average length of start. According to this fangraphs article from last year, average SP IP was under 5 in 2020 for the first time. But more notably, it was part of a 6-year declining trend. Not surprisingly, the average numbers of both batters faced and pitches thrown have similar downward trends.
So why not simply embrace those counts, and look to increase frequency of starts?
In a 5-man rotation, for every 20 games, barring any weirdness of injury, days off, or other rotation-juggling, each of the 5 SP's will start 4 games, and at 5 IP/game average, log a total of 20 IP.
In my theoretical 4-man rotation, for every 20 games, barring any weirdness of injury, days off, or other rotation-juggling, each of the 4 SP's will start 4 games, and at a projected 4 IP/game average, log the exact same total of 20 IP. So you aren't taking any innings away from your top 4 guys, you are simply moving more innings into the bullpen, but a bullpen that now has an extra guy (whether that means 9 instead of 8 or 8 instead of 7). And bullpens might be less taxed by eliminating a team's 5th and worst starter, which often is becoming a bullpen game anyway.
I know players, especially SP's are creatures of habit and routine, and this is a sport played with real humans, not computers, but once upon a time, teams changed from 4-man rotations to 5-man rotations and no one died. If anything, this allows an even more basic rhythm to their routine as every four days looks like this: Game, off, bullpen session, off, repeat.
So what do you think?
Considering that most starters are increasingly rarely asked to pitch more than 5 innings anymore, due to health and effectiveness, I wonder about a new take on an old approach, namely a 4-man rotation, where starters are only asked to pitch 4 innings. (I know there may be all sorts of contractual issues, -- let alone ego issues -- due to incentives pegged to wins that only kick in when a starter goes 5 innings, but maybe that's a rule that goes away in 2023.)
On paper, in a season, there are 162 games to start obviously. In an injury-free world, that means no more than 33 starts, with most SP's looking at 30-32. If you assume a 5 inning average length of start. According to this fangraphs article from last year, average SP IP was under 5 in 2020 for the first time. But more notably, it was part of a 6-year declining trend. Not surprisingly, the average numbers of both batters faced and pitches thrown have similar downward trends.
So why not simply embrace those counts, and look to increase frequency of starts?
In a 5-man rotation, for every 20 games, barring any weirdness of injury, days off, or other rotation-juggling, each of the 5 SP's will start 4 games, and at 5 IP/game average, log a total of 20 IP.
In my theoretical 4-man rotation, for every 20 games, barring any weirdness of injury, days off, or other rotation-juggling, each of the 4 SP's will start 4 games, and at a projected 4 IP/game average, log the exact same total of 20 IP. So you aren't taking any innings away from your top 4 guys, you are simply moving more innings into the bullpen, but a bullpen that now has an extra guy (whether that means 9 instead of 8 or 8 instead of 7). And bullpens might be less taxed by eliminating a team's 5th and worst starter, which often is becoming a bullpen game anyway.
I know players, especially SP's are creatures of habit and routine, and this is a sport played with real humans, not computers, but once upon a time, teams changed from 4-man rotations to 5-man rotations and no one died. If anything, this allows an even more basic rhythm to their routine as every four days looks like this: Game, off, bullpen session, off, repeat.
So what do you think?
