9/12/2023 - Day offs & Playoffs

JM3

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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Glad there's no games on Monday since it's my birthday & yeahhh... not sure my family would be cool with me live blogging all day.

Greenville starts their best of 3 playoff series on Tuesday.

Tuesday schedule:

6 p.m. - AA - Hartford @ Portland (TBD)

6:45 p.m. - AAA - Syracuse @ Worcester (TBD)

7:00 p.m. A+ Playoffs - Greenville (TBD) @ Hickory - Game 1

https://www.milb.com/scores/all/all/redsox
 
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JM3

JM3

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I was curious for a second if that was going to be their starting pitcher pictured there for today's game, but it's Brock Bell so nvm.

Time to figure out (guess at) their playoff rotation.
 
JM3

JM3

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Per the MiLB page, Corey Kluber is now set to start/open for Worcester today. He opened Saturday's game with a 1-2-3 inning, 13 pitches.
 
JM3

JM3

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Tuesday - Kwiatkowski (43 pitches), DiValerio (42 pitches)
Wednesday - Penrod (72 pitches)
Thursday - Rogers (79 pitches)
Friday - Yordanny (85 pitches)
Saturday - Perales (90 pitches)
Sunday - Song (0.2 innings, 36 pitches)

So I think they'll probably skip over the org filler day, & just run:

Game 1: Penrod
Game 2: Rogers
Game 3 (if necessary): YORDANNY
 
JM3

JM3

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Dobbins was supposed to go Sunday but couldn't due to weather. So I assume he'll start for Portland today.

Sunday - Dobbins
Monday - Off
Tuesday - Liu
Wednesday - Bastardo
Thursday - Coffey (2 innings, rain)
Friday - Miller etc.
Saturday - Wikelman (3 innings, rain) + Liu
Sunday - (rain)
Monday - Off

Rainy week

Anyway, so for this week I predict:

Tuesday - Dobbins
Wednesday - Bastardo
Thurdsay - Coffey
Friday - Liu
Saturday - Wikelman
Sunday - Org filler
 
JM3

JM3

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Portland finished 2.5 games behind Somerset in the 1st half, & they were right in the thick of the playoff hunt in the 2nd half until recently when they have fallen off, while Binghamton is on a roll.

They are 6 games behind Binghamton (who is 0.5 games behind Somerset, but Somerset can't win both halves), with 6 games left in the season. They are playing 55-73 Hartford, but Binghamton is playing 57-73 Reading, & I just don't think they're going to tie this up.
 
JM3

JM3

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JM3 said:
Tuesday - Kwiatkowski (43 pitches), DiValerio (42 pitches)
Wednesday - Penrod (72 pitches)
Thursday - Rogers (79 pitches)
Friday - Yordanny (85 pitches)
Saturday - Perales (90 pitches)
Sunday - Song (0.2 innings, 36 pitches)

So I think they'll probably skip over the org filler day, & just run:

Game 1: Penrod
Game 2: Rogers
Game 3 (if necessary): YORDANNY
Click to expand...
Side note: They are off Wednesday, so they could easily skip Rogers & go for Yordanny & Perales in games 2 & 3, but it seems not that likely to me.
 
JM3

JM3

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Worcester has also slumped out of the immediate playoff picture after losing C Note, Abreu & Valdez.

Worcester is 4.5 games back with 2 weeks to play, but they're behind several teams:

Durham (TB) 40-23
Lehigh Valley (PHI) 38-25, 2GB
Buffalo (TOR) 36-25, 3 GB
Norfolk (BAL) 36-27, 4 GB (won 1st half so ineligible)
Worcester (BOS) 35-27, 4.5 GB
Jacksonville (MIA) 35-28, 5 GB
Scranton WB (NYY) 33-29, 6.5 GB

Worcester finishes the season with Syracuse (22-38 in the 2nd half), & Lehigh Valley.
 
JM3

JM3

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If Worcester misses the playoffs, Sunday, September 24th is the last day of the MiLB season for the Red Sox org. & then I get to go on vacation from daily threads.

Will be doing a final prospect rankings update before the inevitable turnover of the off season (we'll see how far up my list they'll end up cutting someone), & will try to keep on top of the all the new comings & goings. It's kind of fun now that I have a working knowledge of literally everyone in the system.
 
JM3

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I enjoy the concept of BTV, but think the actual execution & accuracy leaves a ton to be desired. & I kind of hate the fact that people cite is as a reliable indicator of whether a trade is fair or not.

Will go through BTV Values on some prospects & why they may or may not be silly...

Let's start with...

Guys who are not actually on the Red Sox but are still listed on the Red Sox:

1B Pedro Castellanos: 0.2 BTV. Castellanos was released by the Red Sox after the '22 season & signed as a Minor League free agent with the Padres in January. He turns 26 in December & has spent all season in AA.

C Kole Cottam: 0.2 BTV. Cottam was released by the Red Sox in March '23 at Cottam's request. He signed with an Independent Ball team.

C Naysbel Marcano: 0.3 BTV. Marcano was released by the Red Sox in March '23 & does not seem to have caught on anywhere else.
 
JM3

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Side note:

Going through this I realized I have excluded Victor Santos from all my prospect lists to date. He was sidelined in spring training due to an arm issue & hasn't pitched all season.

Santos was the PTBNL the Red Sox received in return for the July '21 trade where they sent CJ Chatham to the Phillies.

In '22, Santos pitched 101.1 innings for Portland with a 4.97 ERA (4.54 xFIP) & 43.2 innings for Worcester with a 4.95 ERA (4.01 xFIP). Santos turned 23 in July. Pretty quick rise to AAA, but the SoxProspects guys view him as limited due to a fastball that sits 90-92. Seems fair, unless he's gained velocity after recovering from the arm injury.
 
JM3

JM3

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JM3 said:
Side note:

Going through this I realized I have excluded Victor Santos from all my prospect lists to date. He was sidelined in spring training due to an arm issue & hasn't pitched all season.

Santos was the PTBNL the Red Sox received in return for the July '21 trade where they sent CJ Chatham to the Phillies.

In '22, Santos pitched 101.1 innings for Portland with a 4.97 ERA (4.54 xFIP) & 43.2 innings for Worcester with a 4.95 ERA (4.01 xFIP). Santos turned 23 in July. Pretty quick rise to AAA, but the SoxProspects guys view him as limited due to a fastball that sits 90-92. Seems fair, unless he's gained velocity after recovering from the arm injury.
Click to expand...
Chatham never made it to MLB. He opted for free agency from the Phillies after the '21 season & signed with the Diamondbacks for the '22 season. He was released after 12 PAs & has not signed with another MLB franchise.

Chatham was the Red Sox 2nd round pick in 2016.
 
JM3

JM3

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Coffey has a 28 wRC+ in 79 PAs in A+.

& hasn't played since September 1st.
 
The Gray Eagle

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JM3 said:
I enjoy the concept of BTV, but think the actual execution & accuracy leaves a ton to be desired. & I kind of hate the fact that people cite is as a reliable indicator of whether a trade is fair or not.

Will go through BTV Values on some prospects & why they may or may not be silly...

Let's start with...

Guys who are not actually on the Red Sox but are still listed on the Red Sox:

1B Pedro Castellanos: 0.2 BTV. Castellanos was released by the Red Sox after the '22 season & signed as a Minor League free agent with the Padres in January. He turns 26 in December & has spent all season in AA.

C Kole Cottam: 0.2 BTV. Cottam was released by the Red Sox in March '23 at Cottam's request. He signed with an Independent Ball team.

C Naysbel Marcano: 0.3 BTV. Marcano was released by the Red Sox in March '23 & does not seem to have caught on anywhere else.
Click to expand...
I proposed a simple trade based on BTV trade values and the Red Sox come up a little short in value but I would probably do it anyway:
70776

If we still had Castellanos, Cottam and Marcano, we could swap them to the Angels for Reid Detmers, Chase Silseth, and Mike Trout.
Trout is old and expensive, and Silseth got hit in the head with a throw a while ago, so it's kind of an iffy trade, but I would probably do it.
 
JM3

JM3

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The Gray Eagle said:
I proposed a simple trade based on BTV trade values and the Red Sox come up a little short in value but I would probably do it anyway:
View attachment 70776

If we still had Castellanos, Cottam and Marcano, we could swap them to the Angels for Reid Detmers, Chase Silseth, and Mike Trout.
Trout is old and expensive, and Silseth got hit in the head with a throw a while ago, so it's kind of an iffy trade, but I would probably do it.
Click to expand...
This is quite magnanimous of you!

I was going to list some other issues & value complaints (& other things like they have 2 different values for Yoely & both are stupid low)... but it's not even worth it.
 
JM3

JM3

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The Gray Eagle said:
Not Mayer though, unless I missed him? Even Bleis is listed.
Click to expand...
That was the 1st comment on the Tweet, too. He might be one of the guys rotating in who aren't part of the formal program since they're trying to keep him away from baseball activities at the moment.
 
JM3

JM3

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Other top prospects like Roman & Yorke aren't there, too. It's mostly A+ & lower guys, & Teel who is a new draftee.
 
JM3

JM3

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Yeah, Teel is literally the only position player in Portland or Worcester there.

A few pitchers like Wikelman & Guerrero are there, though.
 
JM3

JM3

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Kluber allowed a hit in a scoreless 1st. Only 10 pitches.
 
JM3

JM3

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Portland only has 2 hits through 4 innings, singles by Blaze & Meidroth, & are losing 2-0 on a 2-run homer allowed by Dobbins in the 3rd.
 
JM3

JM3

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Sogard triple & Scott double to give Worcester a 1-0 lead.
 
JM3

JM3

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JM3 said:
Sogard triple & Scott double to give Worcester a 1-0 lead.
Click to expand...
Ronaldo Hernandez rbi single on a pop up to right field deflected by the 2B...sounds like a line drive in the box score.

2-0
 
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