The shift to 48 teams SUCKS, but it does help African teams who not only get a few more spots but get a reprieve from what was the toughest qualifying format (win your group or go home).
International footy truly is the best, despite the drop-off in quality.
Edit: And after you win your group it was a two legged tie against another group winner.
I dunno if it's that much less brutal.
Old format (1998-2022):
1) Top 26 teams get a bye, remaining 28 play a home-and-home elimination match (exact numbers vary by cycle with suspensions etc, but point is to get down to 40 teams)
2) 10x groups of 4, play 6 matches. Winners advance, everyone else goes home.
3) 10 group winners play home-and-home elimination vs each other, 5 winners go to the WC
The 2018 cycle reversed steps 2 and 3 (they played a second home-and-home to get down to 20 teams, then 5x groups of 4), the 2010 cycle was a little different because South Africa was hosting, and 1998 did not require a Phase #3... but it's basically always been the same thing. Winner-take-all groups which might be heavily imbalanced, and no sort of repechage to bail out anyone from a group-of-death.
New format (2026):
1) All 54 nations divide into 9x groups of 6, play 10 group matches. Group winners qualify for the World Cup.
2) The 4 best group runners-up will play single-elimination matches to choose 1 team to go to the inter-continental playoffs
It's basically still just as harsh, even with that ICPO fallback. Most group games will be crushing defeats for the lower ranked teams, some groups will be much stronger than others, and you either win your group or you're almost certainly screwed. Plus, they're having to consume a lot of international windows, starting with this one (Nov 2023).
If I had been advising CAF, I definitely would have suggested something like:
1) Bottom 25 teams drawn into 5x groups of 5, play 4 matches (1 vs each other team). Group winners (5) and 2 best runners-up advance (= 8).
2) 7 advancing and 29 teams with byes (=36) form 6x groups of 6, play 10 group matches. Group winners qualify.
3) Group runners-up (6) and 2 best group 3rd-places (=8) play home-and-home elimination. 4 winners will take final 3 WC spots + ICPO spot. Can determine that by ranking or have them play each other round-robin.
Schedule:
Round 1: Sept, Oct and Nov 2024 windows.
Round 2: March, June (2 matches), Sept, Oct and Nov 2025 windows. AfCON 2025 will be ~July 2025.
Round 3: March 2026. If you need to have the 4 winners play more to sort out the ICPO, do it in early June 2026, to give a few weeks break before the tournament starts.
And BTW, if you think that format is overwrought, just behold the sheer spectacle of the
AFC qualifying format.