He liked DSJ, too. I just went back and checked old text messages from before the draft (mostly from after Ainge tradied the #1 and before the draft). Summary here:
- Fultz: really good, really skilled. Not as explosive as DSJ, not as light on his feet as Fox, but really really good.I like ainge's move though. Hard to draft a guard #1 unless he's an off-the-charts athlete. Surprised he's viewed as a definitive 1 actually
Kyrie isn't an insane althete he gets to his spot via handle and guile just like fultz. He's not a wall type althete but his shot is better form and his size is better which does partly offset. (In response to others too). I think that people are too dismissive of huge consensus number 1 in a good draft myself. But I understand people don't mean he's bad.
- Ball: very good but not high elite athlete. Whips the ball around effortlessly in several different ways - reminds me a little of bird like that. Ball's a wildcard to me. Hard to support him over what are clearly better athletes, but his ball skills - no pun intended - are elite/unique. A better basketball guy could evaluate him better. Ball might have otherworldly passing ability; I'm just not as good at evaluating that.
Fultz is clearly a better athlete than ball. Ball has good top end speed, but his upside is his shot and passing of course. May not need althleticism
- Tatum: Okay, I'd stop short of calling Tatum a high elite athlete; we're not talking about Garnett here. But he's a very good athlete, functionally very strong, and is comfortable scoring in a whole slew of ways. Reminds me of Carmelo Anthony when he was at Syracuse. If Pierce/Carmelo is your thing, he's perfect. I think Tatum might be the safest pick in the draft.
Tatum has slow twitch. He's not strong enough (yet) to mess with 4s and he's not quick enough to handle fast wings. I think he will be ok, but he's inflexible. Where Fultz has body control and flexibility, Tatum is stiff. This will hurt him defensively and finishing at the rim. I think Tatum has lots of upside but he's an average to slightly plus althete for me.
- Jackson: Okay I might not be quite as high on Josh Jackson as the consensus. Really good athlete - though not quite the athlete Wiggins was - and if he gets space in either a half court spread or the open floor, he can be lethal. Don't love his shot compared to some of these other guys. Moves with more fluidity than Jaylen Brown. Might put him in 5-10. I def don't like him over Tatum, and I think I might prefer Isaac. Man I'd have a hard time taking Josh Jackson over De'arron Fox - couldn't do it actually. Fox is the far more rare player. Might like DSJ better than Jackson too. He's young so he could keep getting better, but in general I didn't care for [Jackson]. Be interesting to see who has the better career, Josh Jackson or Jonathan Isaac
I think he's close to the althete Wiggins is, but he's his shot is a mess and his iq is dubious. He is elite athletically but I'm not sure what he's good at.
- Fox: not exactly sure how to put it, but his feet interact with the ground more effortlessly than any player I've ever seen, including Jordan/Payton. Def doesn't have the freakish strength/exlosiveness of MJ/Westbrook, but his feet just look miles ahead of what he'll see in the NBA. Worth watching his YouTube highlights to see what I mean. Defensive potential must be off the charts. Plenty of ball skill & ability to change direction ability is elite. He can drive so well defenders will have to concede some space, so whether he can stick that shot consistently will determine a lot of his success. I cannot overstate the quality of Fox's feet. We're talking Deion Sanders here.
Fox is fast. I think this is a mistake to say fast equals athletic. He's not just not strong, he's weak. He's 170 pounds in gear. I mean... He got knocked off his shot with minimal contact and shot experts suggest his strength and that inability to absorb any contact at all is a factor in his horrendous shooting given the form
Training experts suggest he can improve of course, but his frame isn't easy to pack muscle on. I'm highly dubious he can get stronger enough to be a star. If he can't shoot his pace is mitigated but ability to sag.
- Isaac: How tall is Isaac? His highlights are really good - superb coordination in both sides. Form on outside shot could be a little better, though he prob has the coordination to fix it (most guys don't). I could see a team liking him. He's 6'11"? Holy shit...hes not projected top 5?
Isaac projects as ridiculous defensively, but in classic cognitive bias we think of him as a good shooter because he started hot and finished soft his numbers look good. I think he can be a great spacing and defensive big.
- Ntilikina: really good movements on the court and a nice looking shot imo. I don't see the explosive first step that Fox or Smith has, and that's why I prob have him at the bottom of the guy's I've seen so far. Light, long and athletic though, so plenty to like.
Better size than most esp wingspan but athleticism is not his strength would agree.
- DSJ: Okay, Smith is really good, though prob the worst current Celtics fit. Stronger, more mature offensive game than Fox. Still prefer Fox bc I think at worst you've got a game changing defender, and this kid def isn't that. Offense comes really easily to him though. Tough to bet on an NC State kid; that program is a hell hole. Very good player though. Can certainly see him as a top 10 type.
As I mentioned for fox his strength matters on defense too, and I totally don't see a game changing defender. Not least because the on ball defender on the PG in the NBA needs to be ridiculous to be game changing.
DSJ athletic ability is imo top in the draft (which is why I had him 2/3) and keeps improving as he gaisn confidence post knee injury.
System is a perfect fit, as is Noel. I made some money on Roy betting but took profit because price is about right now and others like Simmons too low.
Fox over DSJ is a big error for me.
- Monk: a little more difficult to evaluate a shooter bc when you only see highlights, you don't see him moving w/o the ball. Awesome shooter, and can score in a bunch of other ways too. Had no idea he had that many dunk finishes. Would have liked to have seen more examples of him setting his shot up off the dribble. Inconclusive there. Doesn't look like a great defender, but also not the type of shooter who's a complete liability in that regard either.
This makes me doubt a lot of the rest anyway tbh, scouting highlights is not scouting.
Regardless he's a much better althete than people think (assumption seems to be skinny shooter). With a handle improvement I think he's got real upside, but I have the most confidence in his shot in the draft which helps as a floor.