Minor league thread 2023

JM3

JM3

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Chainsaw318 said:
I thought that SP take on Castro was similar to Anthony, in that the underlying numbers in low-offense Salem heralded the move to Greenville, and he was as good or better in Greenville.

The defense seems lesser than Anthony’s, but if he can play center now, I don’t know that he’s immediately LF only. RF at Fenway is big, but I dont feel players out there have not always had to be elite CF types to be successful, like a Trot Nixon.
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I mean sure, you can make some comparisons to Roman. Both walked a ton in A-Ball & hit ok then did better in A+, both were much better against righties than lefties, both are Outfielders who played CF as well as corner outfield.

But his hit tool, speed tool, range tool, arm tool, awareness & especially his power tool all seem lesser than Roman, & he's older than Roman. Which is why Roman moved up significantly before Castro.

Trot did play 70 games in CF in '01 for the Red Sox. He also split his time between CF & RF when moving through the org.

In Trot's MiLB career...

278 games in RF
203 games in CF
57 games in LF (38 of which were in 2008 at 34)

They are already steering Castro toward LF & even DH when he's not in CF.
 
JM3

JM3

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(I think the most likely answer is Bryan Mata because he's out of options, is on the 40 & has good stuff, & showed he could throw strikes at AFL...of course he's also a trade candidate)
 
Chainsaw318

Chainsaw318

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We mostly agree.

May point was more about Salem and Greenville than Anthony and Castro.

Castro’s not very likely a player in Anthony’s tier or with similar tools, but what he does have wasn’t showing up in the front-facing stats in Salem, due to what seems like big ballparks/low offense in that league, and an advanced enough approach to not swing at bad pitches, shown by the 16% walk rate.

In Greenville, the numbers bore that out, mostly. He produced at the somewhat higher level and didn’t see a massive jump in his K rate, as it only went up 2% and remained under 20%. The walk rate came down, but stayed around 9%.

The other development stuff is harder to parse, especially with the players who come up from the Dominican, so haven’t had the same reps, losing 2020 to Covid and another player dev session or two to hurricanes in Florida over that time.

I forgot how versatile Trot was for the Red Sox, though, a quick browse made his defensive stats all look poor. I agree Castro may not be a plus OF, but that’s not the same as poor, and worth noting he’s only been in the OF since 2021, so learning on the job.

In a system that can use guys who could develop 4-5 average tools instead or 1-2, Castro is one you can dream on a little of taking a next step, and then becomes very interesting, kind of filling in the next timeline tier between Anthony and Bleis.
 
JM3

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Chainsaw318 said:
We mostly agree.

May point was more about Salem and Greenville than Anthony and Castro.

Castro’s not very likely a player in Anthony’s tier or with similar tools, but what he does have wasn’t showing up in the front-facing stats in Salem, due to what seems like big ballparks/low offense in that league, and an advanced enough approach to not swing at bad pitches, shown by the 16% walk rate.

In Greenville, the numbers bore that out, mostly. He produced at the somewhat higher level and didn’t see a massive jump in his K rate, as it only went up 2% and remained under 20%. The walk rate came down, but stayed around 9%.

The other development stuff is harder to parse, especially with the players who come up from the Dominican, so haven’t had the same reps, losing 2020 to Covid and another player dev session or two to hurricanes in Florida over that time.

I forgot how versatile Trot was for the Red Sox, though, a quick browse made his defensive stats all look poor. I agree Castro may not be a plus OF, but that’s not the same as poor, and worth noting he’s only been in the OF since 2021, so learning on the job.

In a system that can use guys who could develop 4-5 average tools instead or 1-2, Castro is one you can dream on a little of taking a next step, and then becomes very interesting, kind of filling in the next timeline tier between Anthony and Bleis.
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That's totally fair. My tools issues with Castro are a lot less than my issues with Hickey in terms of Castro's defense & baserunning at least having the chance to be at least ok.

If Bleis gets back to Bleising, I think he makes it before Castro, though. The bridge to Yosander Asencio!
 
JM3

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Looks like they got Wyatt Mills back.

11/19/23 Boston Red Sox signed free agent RHP Wyatt Mills to a minor league contract.

11/26/23 RHP Wyatt Mills assigned to Worcester Red Sox.
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sittingstill

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Chainsaw318 said:
May point was more about Salem and Greenville than Anthony and Castro.
...
The other development stuff is harder to parse, especially with the players who come up from the Dominican, so haven’t had the same reps, losing 2020 to Covid and another player dev session or two to hurricanes in Florida over that time.
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Another challenging factor is that without Lowell between the FCL and Salem, there have definitely been changes in the quality of play in A and A+ that are likely reflected in more aggressive promotions based less on overall numbers and more on team staff assessments/particular stats. Anthony may be the prime example of that, where they essentially said "we like what we're seeing and we want to see it against better competition."
 
JM3

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The Salem Red Sox had the youngest hitters in the Carolina League at 19.8 this season (league average 20.9). On the whole, hitters hit for a .687 OPS in the league (.669 for Salem). The league ERA was 4.14 (3.99 for Salem).

The Greenville Drive also had the youngest hitters in the South Atlantic League at 21.2 (league average 22.2). On the whole, hitters hit for a .721 OPS in the league (.753 for Greenville). The league ERA was 4.45 (5.06 for Greenville).
 
JM3

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Here are the dimensions at Fluor Field where the Drive play:

Left Field: 310 feet
Left-Center Field: 379 feet
Center Field: 390 feet
Deep Center Field: 420 feet
Deep Right Field: 380 feet
Right Field: 302 feet
Left-Field Wall: 33 feet

& Carilion Clinic Field at Salem Memorial Ballpark where Salem Sox play:

Left Field: 325 feet
Center Field: 401 feet
Right Field: 325 feet

Haven't found power alley distances, but the wall is fairly high everywhere.

salem2.jpg
 
JM3

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The wRC+ factors some of this stuff in, which is why Castro improved his OPS from .754 to .801 when he was promoted, but his wRC+ actually dropped from 121 to 119.
 
JM3

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Random, non-conprehensive things I disagree with:

1) The disappearance of Kyle Teel.

2) I think Mayer, Wikelman, Troye, Erro & maybe Meidroth probably start in AA not AAA.

3) I think Mikey starts the year in A+, maybe Campbell, & probably Decker & Donlan if they're still around.

4) Paez being a long reliever & not a starter for Greenville doesn't make sense, but they should have 6 starters anyway.

5) Asigen should start the year in A+ not A.

6) Fogell is probably RP only & I don't think he'll be in the A-Ball rotation. Also not sure why Wandy would be in there over guys like Soto, Mullins & other '23 draft picks.

7) I would kind of expect either Kelvin Diaz to start next year in A-Ball & not FCL.
 
JM3

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This is from Chris Hatfield in a different forum...

It's funny you mention Rafaela. Jordan actually saw fewer pitches per plate appearance than Rafaela did last year. 3.30 in High-A and 3.23 in Double-A. Latter number is the lowest among players in the system with 50 PA at a level above the complexes. Former is 5th lowest.

Rafaela (3.58 in AA, 3.70 in AAA) chases more (40% at both levels compared to 31% at both levels for Jordan). If I were to hazard a guess, I would bet teams felt a little more comfortable attacking Jordan, especially with good velocity (.633 OPS in A+, .686 in AA).

I'm curious, for those saying Jordan is ranked too low, what specifically makes you say that? Other than that he's young for the level, which is certainly not nothing, and contact ability that has been better than expected, what do you see there? I get where it's usually coming from on Twitter (name recognition, etc.), but I'm not sure what in the profile justifies being ranked higher than where he is. He's one of the most aggressive hitters in the system and the results he had in AA were kind of predictable. Now, if he goes and makes adjustments? Sure, that's more interesting. But he's going to get attacked with velo until he shows he can hit it and won't chase it.

To be clear, I'm not saying he sucks or anything. He's in the top 20 of a good system. I think where he's at recognizes there's still something there even though he just had a sub-.300 OBP in AA.
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I think they're generally underestimating the difficulty of AA for a 20 y/o.

In '21 as an 18 y/o:

FCL 169 wRC+ in 76 PAs
A-Ball 95 wRC+ in 38 PAs

In '22 as a 19 y/o:

A-Ball 122 wRC+ in 415 PAs
High-A 128 wRC+ in 106 PAs

In '23 as a 20 y/o:

High-A 145 wRC+ in 322 PAs
AA 89 wRC+ in 203 PAs

I did the Castro breakdown stuff recently. He has more potential average'ish tools than Blaze who would never be a good OF or SB threat, but Castro is 5 months younger than Blaze, is basically a full year behind him level-wise, & has not hit as well as Blaze at any level.

& Blaze has been dealing with mental health issues & was quite out of shape last year, while still putting up great hitting #s prior to Portland. I'm optimistic he will bounce back & have a really nice offensive year & perhaps show more defensively than he has in the past.
 
M

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The only thing I took away from that is Teel has a mustache that I'd probably shave, and that he's training at his family's training center... https://www.teelbaseball.com/

Pretty cool regardless. Can't wait to see what he does next year. Do you think there's a chance he makes the 26 man roster to start the year? He looked a lot better than I thought he would last year. He's going to end up being a home run pick by Chaim.
 
AlNipper49

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I doubt that Teel makes the opening day roster. We have decent enough options in place and while he’s adjusted at every level he’s played I think some good time at AA, where pitching will start looking much different than he’s ever seen, will benefit his development.
 
JM3

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Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if he's there by Opening Day '25, or end of year this year if circumstances call for it, but I would expect he'll start the year in AA.
 
JM3

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Jack Steele was added to the Complex Development program. UMass alum where he was a pitcher.

View: https://twitter.com/steelejack12/status/1729224752110485871


Posts things like this:

View: https://twitter.com/steelejack12/status/1704295816905503025


& this:

View: https://twitter.com/steelejack12/status/1688968401585164288



His previous job was with the Hyannis Harbor Hawks of the Cape Cod League. He got his Masters in Business from UMass in May.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-steele-8312b6177
 
JM3

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Hopefully Steele coaches better than he pitched. Across 5 seasons at UMass from 2019 to 2023 he pitched 177 innings with an 8.24 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9.
 
JM3

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Inmer "The Wolf" Lobo battled heroically through injury for one of the Pirates DSL affiliates in his age 19 season.

Yes, his ERA skyrocketed from 0.82 in 22 innings with the DSL Sox last year to 1.62 this year, but The Wolf was especially cunning in exacting his revenge against his former team.

Lobo pitched 3 of his 8 games, & almost half of his 16.2 innings against the Red Sox.

3 games
7 IP
1 ER
5 hits
3 walks
4 strikeouts

1.29 ERA

A true legend.

View: https://twitter.com/2HG013/status/1609275512618205184
 
JM3

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JM3

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Christopher Smith did a piece on the youngest player on the Red Sox 40 man, PERALES.

“To be able to see the power that he packs in that small frame, short frame, that rise of his fastball, it’s almost like you’re amazed to see that coming out of him,” Greenville manager Iggy Suarez said about Perales who is listed at 6-foot-1, 160 pounds.
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Perales throws a cutter, slider and changeup in addition to his fastball that reaches 98 mph. He considers his slider — which has horizontal movement — his best secondary pitch. The Red Sox wanted him to throw his secondary pitches more often this season.
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https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/11/red-soxs-youngest-player-born-in-2003-packs-power-into-smaller-frame.html
 
JM3

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I was starting to write up a post about how I think Railin Perez may actually be better than Reidis Sena, but Perez is actually 7 months older than I was led to believe so now I'm shook lol

Perez, Albertson Asigen & Claudio Simon are all playing for the Dominican Republic in the WBSC U23 World Cup Qualifier which ends Thursday. None are playing particularly well. The SP page lists Perez as having a 7.00 ERA in 2 innings, which I thought was impossible, but apparently they are 7 inning games, so 2 runs in 2 innings is a 7 ERA instead of 9.

All 3 players played in both games. Perez has allowed 2 runs in 2 innings on 6 hits, 4 walks & 3 strikeouts. Asigen is 0-5 with 3 strikeouts & a sac fly. Simon is 0-5 with a walk, a steal, 2 runs, 3 strikeouts & an error. Asigen has played CF & RF, & Simon played 3B both games.

https://www.wbscamericas.org/en/events/2023-u-23-mens-baseball-world-cup-qualifier-campeonato-premundial-sub-23/schedule-and-results/box-score/128013
https://www.wbscamericas.org/en/events/2023-u-23-mens-baseball-world-cup-qualifier-campeonato-premundial-sub-23/schedule-and-results/box-score/128027
 
JM3

JM3

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But anyway, here's Railin v. Reidis side-to-side. It was more glaring when I was led to believe Sena was a full year older & not just 5 months older, but here's the breakdown:

Bonus: $10k/$10k
When signed: Nov. 2018/Dec. 2018
Height: 6'3/5'10
Bday: 9-2-2021/4-7-2021
Birthplace: Santiago, DR/Neiba, DR
2019 level: DSL/DSL
2019 stats: 50 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3.4 bb/9, 7.9 k/9 : 40 IP, 4.05 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 2.9 bb/9, 7.2 k/9
2021 level: DSL/FCL
2021 stats: 33.1 IP, 1.35 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4.3 bb/9, 10.3 k/9 : 22.1 IP, 3.22 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 5.2 bb/9, 12.5 k/9
2022 level: FCL/A-Ball
2022 stats: 23.1 IP, 1.16 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 3.1 bb/9, 12 k/9 : 21.1 IP, 5.91 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 5.1 bb/9, 8.9 k/9
2023 level: A-Ball/A-Ball, High-A
2023 stats: 56 IP, 3.70 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 5.5 bb/9, 11.1 k.9 : (Sena A-Ball) 15 IP, 1.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4.8 bb/9, 10.8 k/9 : (Sena High-A) 14.2 IP, 6.14 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 4.3 bb.9, 10.4 k/9

This season, Perez struggled early on before finding his groove in A-Ball.

Through June 2nd:

12 games
22.1 IP
18 ER
29 hits
15 walks
4 HBP
21 strikeouts

7.25 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, 6 bb/9, 8.5 k/9

After June 2nd:

20 games
33.2 IP
5 ER
19 hits
19 walks
2 HBP
48 strikeouts

1.34 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 5.1 bb/9, 12.8 k/9

As such, I'm going to go out on a limb & say Railin Perez (#113/NR by SP) is a better prospect than Reidis Sena (#94/#48), & will probably adjust my next rankings to match this current belief.
 
JM3

JM3

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byAndrewParker said:
Hey I didn’t lie to you when I said “Highly talked about” lol I struggled to find the right wording. I think SoxProspects has him at #38 so I couldn’t say “top prospect”
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Lol I didn't say you lied. I just didn't realize people who aren't me were talking about PENROD that much.

He's obviously their #34 prospect, though.

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/top-250-red-sox-prospects-list-prospect-discussion-thread.40216/page-2#post-5851290
 
JM3

JM3

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Apparently that was the bottom of the 5th. I believe Santos allowed 3 runs in the 6th after 5 scoreless innings.
 
JM3

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JM3 said:
Benitez is currently playing for Caguas in the Puerto Rican Winter League.

6 games
7.2 IP
0 runs
4 hits
3 walks
9 strikeouts

0.00 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 3.5 bb/9, 10.6 k/9
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Jorge Benitez pitched a 7th game for Caguas, 2 more scoreless innings.

7 games
9.2 IP
0 runs
4 hits
3 walks
11 strikeouts

0.00 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 2.8 bb/9, 10.2 k/9

He has hit 3 guys, but they probably deserved it.
 
JM3

JM3

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JM3 said:
Jorge Benitez pitched a 7th game for Caguas, 2 more scoreless innings.

7 games
9.2 IP
0 runs
4 hits
3 walks
11 strikeouts

0.00 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 2.8 bb/9, 10.2 k/9

He has hit 3 guys, but they probably deserved it.
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Puerto Rican Winter League is definitely a pitchers' league, though - 2.69 overall ERA through 17 games for each of the 6 teams.
 
JM3

JM3

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I haven't listened to this yet, so not necessarily advocating for it, but PODROD would be a pretty good name for a podcast series.

Christopher Smith did an article on Bryan Mata which probably doesn't belong in this forum since he's not even allowed to pitch in the Minors next year without clearing waivers, but that's ok.

Mata’s situation will be one of the more interesting storylines entering spring training 2024 because he’s out of minor league options. He, therefore, must make Boston’s Opening Day roster (barring an IL stint) or else he’ll be designated for assignment and placed on waivers.
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Seems like they should give him a shot in Spring Training to see how he looks & if he looks good, put him in the pen. If he looks OK, trade him to a cheap franchise. & if he looks awful maybe he'll clear waivers anyway.

“The stuff he has coming out of the bullpen, he’s upper-90s consistently,” said High-A Greenville manager Iggy Suarez, who managed Mata in the Arizona Fall League this offseason. “So I think that’s a pretty good weapon to have coming out of the bullpen.”
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The Red Sox plan to use Mata, who will turn 25 on May 3, as a reliever and let him try to win a roster spot.

“To have movement and the run on the fastball that he has and the power slider (is big),” Suarez said. “When you see the slider being thrown to lefties and they’re swinging and missing and they’re getting hit sometimes by it, that’s some good stuff to see. We’ll see what happens going into spring training. Obviously we’d love to see him in the bullpen just with the stuff that he has and that we’ve seen. He’s been with us for quite some time. And we’ve seen it. We’re excited and hopefully it does work out.”
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There's also some stuff on PENROD at the end.

“That’s not even the piece for me that stands out with him because there’s frankly a lot of lefties who throw in the mid-90s,” Glendale Desert Dogs pitching coach David Anderson said. “His arsenal pairs together extremely well. He’s been really focusing on the slider but the changeup, he can use it vs. left (and) vs. right. Not all pitchers can do that. The line, the tunnel, the sell is right off the fastball. So it’s very difficult for pitch recognition. And it gives him two options. It opens up both sides of the plate. When he can move the fastball side to side, now we have fastball/slider to the glove side and fastball/changeup to the arm side. So he has two weapons on both sides of the plate. And he uses all of them vs. both sides so it makes it a very difficult at-bat.”
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https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/11/red-sox-prospect-in-upper-90s-consistently-must-make-opening-day-roster.html
 
JM3

JM3

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Have started the PENPOD.

He seems really unpolished media-wise in just a super chill, unvarnished & relatable way.
 
The Gray Eagle

The Gray Eagle

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All this Penrod attention needs to stop! He isn't a major league caliber pitcher and any team that takes him in the Rule 5 draft will immediately regret it! Other teams should just forget about him, he's not going to be worth a roster spot. People are saying that any GM/PBO that drafts him will look like a fool. Not worth it. Don't do it.
 
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