The Twins did indeed release him.I think DDski is done for the spring, unless Sanchez becomes available on a MiLB deal or DFA.
EDIT: What's the general feeling about Beeks at the moment? His spring has been... not great.
The Twins did indeed release him.I think DDski is done for the spring, unless Sanchez becomes available on a MiLB deal or DFA.
Sanchez got his unconditional release to make room for Lynn today because the Twins saw how bad he is. He was awful in the last 3 years with Detroit.I think DDski is done for the spring, unless Sanchez becomes available on a MiLB deal or DFA.
And that’s okay. Sale-Price-Porcello-can hang with anyone’s top three.
It’s surprising that Arrieta is available now, but it’s not worth the long-term penalties to sign him.
I think the answer lies beyond this season. Are they going to pony up big time money to extend Sale?Sanchez got his unconditional release to make room for Lynn today because the Twins saw how bad he is. He was awful in the last 3 years with Detroit.
The price is steep for Arrieta. The Sox would lose a 2nd and a 5th round pick, their 1st round pick would drop 10 spots, and also lose $1 million in international money. The question is this: Would this be worth it if Arrieta helps the team win a World Series? Subjective question, I know.
They would only lose their 2nd and 500k in IFA money, but yes they would see their 1st rounder drop 10 spots. They only would have lost their 5th rounder and the additional 500k if they had been over the threshold last season.Sanchez got his unconditional release to make room for Lynn today because the Twins saw how bad he is. He was awful in the last 3 years with Detroit.
The price is steep for Arrieta. The Sox would lose a 2nd and a 5th round pick, their 1st round pick would drop 10 spots, and also lose $1 million in international money. The question is this: Would this be worth it if Arrieta helps the team win a World Series? Subjective question, I know.
Not ready for prime-time yet. But he might be able to handle some spot starts by mid-season.The Twins did indeed release him.
EDIT: What's the general feeling about Beeks at the moment? His spring has been... not great.
Did you watch the game? Because from what I saw, Porcello had loads of bleeders and bloops find holes, but basically no hard hit balls, plus he wasn’t cutting loose to get velocity, either. He looked fine today.Porcello got rocked today
Plus, assuming he's really fine, you could replace Porcello with Pomeranz in that post and it still holds true. If this rotation is healthy, it's extremely good.Did you watch the game? Because from what I saw, Porcello had loads of bleeders and bloops find holes, but basically no hard hit balls, plus he wasn’t cutting loose to get velocity, either. He looked fine today.
There's still Alex Cobb to ponder...Arrieta to the Phillies, so that discussion is moot.
3/75 for a team that won’t contend? Wow.Arrieta to the Phillies, so that discussion is moot.
It's an up and coming team that will be in the WC picture if Arrieta is healthy and is really well poised to land a big name or two next winter.3/75 for a team that won’t contend? Wow.
Agree, it’s smart. Add one of Machado or Donaldson and one of next year’s FA closers and that team likely contends.They might start contending in years two to three of that deal, and they have a large market and very few commitments. Value's value, and Arrieta seems like a good veteran for a clubhouse. I think it makes sense.
Well, the deal is structured so it could be as little as 2 years and as long as 5 years.Interesting, too, how he and Santana are both only signed for three years, as though the Phillies are hoping to keep the decks relatively clear for a prominent baseball player who is very connected to the Philly area who will also be a free agent that same offseason...
You don't screw around with draft picks for Alex CobbThere's still Alex Cobb to ponder...
A 2nd round pick is like a number 60 pick. Aren't we overrating the value of it?You don't screw around with draft picks for Alex Cobb
On top of what Red said, it's also 500k in IFA money which is capped now and it would drop their top pick 10 spots which further lowers their bonus pool for signing picks.A 2nd round pick is like a number 60 pick. Aren't we overrating the value of it?
I hear you but every pick after the 1st round is a lottery ticket and mid-late first round picks are no certainty. So long as you have the ability to sign your first round pick. The present is more important and if you have a hole to fill in a division with the Yankees and in the same league as the Astros you fill itIt's not the position necessarily, or the player they might get with it. It's the loss of the bonus pool allotment for the spot. #60 in the 2017 draft was worth a little over a million dollars. Considering the Sox, in similar draft position last year, had just $5.6M in draft bonus pool money, losing roughly 18% of their available pool allotment isn't exactly a good thing. That affects their ability to sign all of their picks in the first 10 rounds.
For a team with a rather barren farm system, sacrificing picks and their alloted bonus money isn't exactly the wisest practice.
Apparently my internet hiccuped pretty badly and I saw three copies of this post, edited two down, and then the third vanished. So apologies for not quoting you properly. Anyway...Heck, I do not even mind dropping down 10 spots in the first round for the right guy at the right price
I'm not sure Alex Cobb even fills a hole, never mind one worth taking the hit in draft position, bonus pool, and IFA money. And Dombrowski is paid to think about both the present season and stocking the farm system for subsequent seasons. That's way he has the title he has, along with the money and perks that go along with it.I hear you but every pick after the 1st round is a lottery ticket and mid-late first round picks are no certainty. So long as you have the ability to sign your first round pick. The present is more important and if you have a hole to fill in a division with the Yankees and in the same league as the Astros you fill it
Heck, I do not even mind dropping down 10 spots in the first round for the right guy at the right price
I think Cobb can fit a role. He might be the team's 3rd best pitcher. With that said, I'm not saying he'd be worth it. Big risk. But also big reward. Potentially he gives all the other starters needed rest. No more throwing Sale 200+ innings just to watch him wear down etc. There are still issues with Price and Pomeranz and ERod. Can't over-use them. Wright is huge question. In addition you have a good idea when he struggles with his knuckleball in hot/humid and other times rain conditions.I'm not sure Alex Cobb even fills a hole, never mind one worth taking the hit in draft position, bonus pool, and IFA money. And Dombrowski is paid to think about both the present season and stocking the farm system for subsequent seasons. That's way he has the title he has, along with the money and perks that go along with it.
Even if this is true (and I'm skeptical), context matters. The right question to ask about the value of a rotation addition is, how much better is this guy than our #5 guy? I'm not even sure who our #5 guy is, our rotation is so flat once you get past Sale and (still sorta kinda) Price. But let's say it's Rodriguez. How much better is Cobb than Rodriguez? Do you give up significant draft assets for that? I think the answers are pretty clearly "not much" and "no."I think Cobb can fit a role. He might be the team's 3rd best pitcher.
I agree with you in regards to "even if Cobb" is or is not our 3 best pitcher. I had indicated "he might be." ZIPS has him rated high enough to be the 3rd but it could be data because of his time spent in Tampa pitching park.Even if this is true (and I'm skeptical), context matters. The right question to ask about the value of a rotation addition is, how much better is this guy than our #5 guy? I'm not even sure who our #5 guy is, our rotation is so flat once you get past Sale and (still sorta kinda) Price. But let's say it's Rodriguez. How much better is Cobb than Rodriguez? Do you give up significant draft assets for that? I think the answers are pretty clearly "not much" and "no."
Couldn't have put it better myself. You can't field an all star team in general, but when there are additional payroll and roster constraints, it's even more difficult to do so.We're going to be giving starts to Brian Johnson and/or Velazquez in April. Sure it's not ideal and anyone would rather have Cobb make those starts, but It's not going to happen and it's not the end of the world.
This! It’s DDski’s world and we’re all just living in it.This team is rolling into the season with the players they have on hand. Folks are going to have to get used to it and move on.
FWIW, Cobb grew up a Sox fan in outer Boston. He might not wanna sign with a team with depth like ours, but there’s a nonzero chance there are intangible reasons he’d be interested if he’s guaranteed a rotation spot.And Cobb probably wouldn't even want to sign with the Red Sox anyway, he could sign with several other teams and be sure of being in the rotation all year.
This would have been a great offseason to have a lot of payroll space and several roster spots to fill, as there are real potential bargains still out there. But the Red Sox don't have the payroll space or the roster space to do much bargain buying this year. When you finish first two years in a row and don't lose any key free agents, that tends to be the case.
Given the market shift going on there is fairly decent projected chance in play that the Sox wouldn't even extend a QO (outside him having a slam dunk type of productive year, of course). Which barring a very unlikely series of events would only net us a post-4th round pick as an overcap spender anyway .Pomerania seems like a great candidate to end up in QO purgatory.
Pom accepting the QO is a good scenario. Provided he’s healthy this year, getting him at 1/$18 or so is favorable to ponying up multiple years for Corbin, Happ, Keuchel, Morton, Richards, et al. or trading for a replacement.Given the market shift going on there is fairly decent projected chance in play that the Sox wouldn't even extend a QO. Which barring a very unlikely series of events would only net us a post-4th round pick as an overcap spender anyway .
If they still like him enough to risk the chance he takes it I'd be guessing on a multi year extension before getting to that point.
If he has the same year he had last year, he definitely gets the offer, right?Given the market shift going on there is fairly decent projected chance in play that the Sox wouldn't even extend a QO (outside him having a slam dunk type of productive year, of course). Which barring a very unlikely series of events would only net us a post-4th round pick as an overcap spender anyway .
If they still like him enough to risk the chance he takes it I'd be guessing on a multi year extension before getting to that point.
Pina was more than fine for them last year. I can't see them giving up a young, top set up guy for a back up catcher. Hader is worth actual good prospects. He could be Andrew Miller lite.Won’t happen, though. A far more likely scenario is a team trading us a 4-5 or swingman so they could sign Cobb themselves. With Stephen Vogt going down and the Brewers linked to Cobb all offseason, I could see us trading them a catcher for one of their arms. I’m a Swihart believer, but I’d trade him for Josh Hader in a second.
That kind of depends of the surrounding variables in regards to where this teams ends up at. I just know after watching what played out this winter and if I'm Pom that sure thing QO payday might be looking too good to pass up.If he has the same year he had last year, he definitely gets the offer, right?
You might be right. But while that might be a problem for Tampa or Oakland, it would be a good outcome for Boston, better than an extension unless he takes a ridiculously low AAV.That kind of depends of the surrounding variables in regards to where this teams ends up at. I just know after watching what played out this winter and if I'm Pom that sure thing QO payday might be looking too good to pass up.
I agree. I’d happily throw them Swihart and Johnson, but it’s not enough.Pina was more than fine for them last year. I can't see them giving up a young, top set up guy for a back up catcher. Hader is worth actual good prospects. He could be Andrew Miller lite.
Adding to the above: only about half of the teams losing such players are eligible to receive a pick after the first round.Given the market shift going on there is fairly decent projected chance in play that the Sox wouldn't even extend a QO (outside him having a slam dunk type of productive year, of course). Which barring a very unlikely series of events would only net us a post-4th round pick as an overcap spender anyway .
If they still like him enough to risk the chance he takes it I'd be guessing on a multi year extension before getting to that point.
Again, that depends though. Since with this market shift you can kind of guess that (certain) players are going to be more willing and open to sign more "reasonable" extensions then they maybe have been in the past. As opposed to taking the risk they end up the next Lynn or Cobb, who unlike Darvish/Arrietta don't have the big name ace appeal working in their favor.You might be right. But while that might be a problem for Tampa or Oakland, it would be a good outcome for Boston, better than an extension unless he takes a ridiculously low AAV.