A Brady restructure that extends his deal seems pretty unlikely to me. He is already signed through his age 42 season, an age at which it is completely unprecedented for a QB to play at a high level in the NFL.
Everything the team has done for the last 12 months is consistent with the notion that they want to keep JG - turning down (reportedly) huge offers, trading Brissett, keeping a substantial level of rollover (although less now that preseason moves have shaken out).
We'll see how it turns out. But it would certainly be pretty foolish to have passed up those huge offers for JG this offseason to not only franchise/trade him for far less in the 2018 offseason but also to be nearly forced to use a high draft pick on a QB now that they've traded Brissett. If BB has made one thing clear, its that he values the backup QB position enough to invest real resources and wants to be grooming a potential successor at all times. The odds of BB letting JG go in 2018 and then just signing Matt Moore or whoever to backup a 41-year-old Brady are pretty much zero. So if they're franchise/trading JG, they're very likely going to pick a QB with their first or second round pick, more than offsetting whatever pick they would get back for JG. It would be a pretty disastrous sequence of decisions across the 2017-18 offseasons if they end up going that route.
I agree there's a fair bit of evidence they want to keep JimmyG (although not the rollover part, I would wager that when 2018 rolls around they'll be rolling the same or less space than they did this year) .
I dont fully agree with the last paragraph.
We dont really know what these offers for Jimmy G were this offseason (as you hint at). There's a lot of smoke that the Browns offered 12, but we don't really know that offer was on the table. If the offer was a 2nd round pick or a future 1st for Jimmy G, would that change the equation?
I think there is a better than zero chance they draft a successor and sign a caretaker backup for next year. Not really the Pats MO historically, and I wouldnt call it the most likely solution, but might end up being the best solution here and a high pick next year in whats supposed to be a strong QB class might end up fitting better with the timeline of Brady's retirement than JimmyG does while paying for a short-term vet backup.
Finally, JimmyG functions as a cheap against the cap insurance policy against Brady falling off a cliff at age 40, provides a backup solution for a team with title hopes in 2017, and puts off the longer-term decision on the QB position by a year. Is the opportunity cost of the difference between 12 and and a comp pick/tag and trade comp too much to pay for that? Maybe, but Id have a hard time calling it a "disastrous sequence of decisions" if Brady plays well and stays healthy this year and JimmyG is traded for a 55th pick which is then used on a QB that they like.
EDIT: Mods, wrote this as the topic was being split out, please move to the other thread. Thanks.