Well his walk rate is around 6% right now, and he still only shows average-ish power in AAA, so there are still things for him to work on down there. From what I read from multiple sources, he would have to change the current path of his swing in order to get more fly balls and higher power numbers, which is something you'd rather have him work on in Pawtucket. But he is definitely proving he knows how to put a bat to a ball. I have no doubt he would be able to hit for average in the pros, but 1B sets a high offensive bar.Well it looks like Travis is continuin where he left off this Spring. His slash line in Pawtucket up to this point is .317/.353/.460 after a bit of a slow start in the first week. Nice to know we have a guy like that stashed away in Pawtucket if Hanley gets hurt or something.
Not honestly sure how long we can continue to contain this guy in the minors. Hanley better watch his tailfeathers at this rate.
I think anyone looking at Youk's career without RedSox colored glasses would think he was chemically enhanced once he got to the bigs. There was nothing to suggest in 8 minor and major league seasons that iso power would jump from a peak of .170 to .250 in his age 29-32 seasons.Youk was expected to be a doubles and line drive hitter when he was first called up, but he hit 29 home runs, in 2008, 27 in 2009 and 19 in just 102 games in 2010. One of the reasons he turned out to be such a great corner infield player is because that home run power materialized once he was called up and playing regularly. If it doesn't materialize for Travis, he could be a solid every day starter, but he'll also be quite replaceable for a 1st division team with World Series aspirations.
Also, Youk was a solid defensive third baseman and an excellent defensive first baseman. Travis is neither of those things. I'm high on him. Probably higher than most. But aside from his stance and swing being a bit reminiscent of Youk's and an ability to get on base at a good clip, they're not really all that similar and I don't think Youk is an instructive comp here. Plus, the latter breaks down when you look at actual walk rates for each.
Understanding that part of the analogy, what you are missing that Youk did have an elite on base skill.
In 1843 minor league PA's (this include rehabs stints, etc. this point isn't worth me doing the math to isolate his pre call-up numbers) he walked 332 times (18% of his PA! 2005 AL was 8% for comparison) while only striking out 218 times (1.5 BB/K).
He's a very good prospect. But after less than 80 AB's in AAA, he definitely hasn't proven he has nothing left to work on and is ready to push an established big league hitter out of a position. He is on a level where they scout players for weaknesses for the first time, and his K/BB ratio has dropped from ~1/1 to ~5/1. His power is still about league average for a position that is expected to have plus power. That's ok, he can make that up somewhere else, but he isn't making it up with his defense either right now. It looks to me that barring an injury/emergency situation, he's going to be down there for a while longer until the walk rate comes up and he shows he has more to his game than just batting average. At many other positions, maybe even 3B, a great batting average and average tools otherwise can make you a very good player, but at first base the competition is more stiff, and you need to bring more to become a regular. Especially for a team with deep pockets and high expectations like the Sox. But he's a prospect, they all have things to work on, and they're all judged to be prospects because they have the potential to improve them.Yes, and that's why he was able to capitalize so extremely on exactly the tendency I think Travis will also be able to take advantage of as a Fenway hitter, even if Travis doesn't also have the elite hitting eye that Youk combined with that park factor to become one of the elite hitters in all of baseball.
I'm trying to talk about a park factor to explain why I don't think Travis needs vast amounts of big fly power to be a good hitter at Fenway, and no matter how much I try to point to that park factors you yahoos keep rubber banding back to some kind of skills comparison. I do not understand why this is difficult to communicate or understand.
The skills comparison I did make, to Mike Lowell and not to Youkilis, I think is pretty fair, and I think it represents a good 50th percentile projection for Travis.
He must have read this. Since May 1 he's been back at 1:1 (8 K, 8 BB), cutting the 2016 ratio in half, to 2.5/1 (31/13).He is on a level where they scout players for weaknesses for the first time, and his K/BB ratio has dropped from ~1/1 to ~5/1.
Since then he's shown a good eye, and good power with a .200 ISO. His numbers are very good without a high BABIP (it's only .295), so it doesn't look like a lucky streak with balls in play. If he keeps that up, he makes a pretty strong argument he can be an above average first baseman.He must have read this. Since May 1 he's been back at 1:1 (8 K, 8 BB), cutting the 2016 ratio in half, to 2.5/1 (31/13).
This is true. And the bright side.Well atleast it's not looking like we'll need him this year and it's not like his service time is accruing. I guess he'll be on the radar for 2018 then.
I think ACLs are pretty predictable, if it's just the ACL. 6-8 months should put him back in shape to play, and by spring training he should feel more or less fully healed. Obviously that's devoid of any knowledge of his actual situation, but they didn't say ACL+anything, the situations where it gets less predictable.This is true. And the bright side.
But an injury to Hanley or Shaw might have changed things even this year and Travis was also a possible trade chit. And who knows how long the rehab takes and if/when Travis will be back on track.
Sorry for the Debby Downer routine.
Based on what?He was a better hitter than Schwarber at Indiana.