Xander’s defensive stats are kind of all over the place. DRS has him below average (-3 runs) while UZR has him very close to average (+0.5 per 150).The "Xander moving from SS" chatter has begun. Talking about second base and even first base. It's to accommodate Ha-Seong Kim and a very good MI prospect they have, so it's not like he's unplayable at SS; his defensive outs-above-average is high (88th %ile) but his dWar is only slightly positive (0.3) and his arm strength is only 25%ile. But if he's at 1B, SD's chance at a decent return on investment are pretty small. They'd be better off eating some money and trading him to a team that can use him at SS.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/xander-bogaerts-593428?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
https://friarsonbase.com/posts/san-diego-padres-rumors-xander-bogaerts-position-change a
The position he plays matters a great deal. If he can sustain an OPS+ of 105, that's good for SS. Less so at 2B, and much less so at 1B or LF.Xander’s defensive stats are kind of all over the place. DRS has him below average (-3 runs) while UZR has him very close to average (+0.5 per 150).
I’d probably be more worried about his hitting right now than his fielding or what position he plays. His loss of ISO power has been quite concerning. This is the 4th consecutive year of ISO decline for him since 2019…he’s lost cumulatively over 100 points of ISO.
He's slugging under .400. It doesn't matter what position he is playing. They didn't give him $280M to slug .400.The position he plays matters a great deal. If he can sustain an OPS+ of 105, that's good for SS. Less so at 2B, and much less so at 1B or LF.
Yeah the position commentary was poor on my part. I should’ve just said fielding and not mentioned changing positions. My ultimate point was that his hitting has declined at a fast enough pace that the position talk may be irrelevant for him. He won’t be playable as a middle infielder pretty soon if he can’t reverse or at least stabilize that trend.The position he plays matters a great deal. If he can sustain an OPS+ of 105, that's good for SS. Less so at 2B, and much less so at 1B or LF.
Yeah. The contract is what it is. I agree his path to being a contributing player going forward is as a solidly defensive middle infielder, with an OPS+ in the 100 range. For as many years as he can do that, he'll be at least in the range of worth his yearly salary.Though if his defense plays as well above average at second base, maybe he can have a home there if his hitting stabilizes at 2023 levels for the next several years. But either way, that contract is looking quite precarious to put it diplomatically
Great! Maybe Xander will be a cost-free acquisition a few trade deadlines from now.But if he's playing 1B or LF, he might on the fast track to being Eric Hosmer.
Great! Maybe Xander will be a cost-free acquisition a few trade deadlines from now.
"Why can't we get guys like that?"Yeah. The contract is what it is. I agree his path to being a contributing player going forward is as a solidly defensive middle infielder, with an OPS+ in the 100 range. For as many years as he can do that, he'll be at least in the range of worth his yearly salary.
But if he's playing 1B or LF, he might on the fast track to being Eric Hosmer.
I get the sentiment, but I am not sure we will ever end up with a true "cautionary tale" of a contract. Before Xander there was Strasburg (or, to a lesser extent, Sale), before Strasburg there was Stanton, before Stanton there was Miggy, and so on.It's sad to think that Xander might become some cautionary tale for bad free agency signings. Good for him obviously for securing generational wealth for his family, but lousy for us fans.
One of the reasons I've been patient with Bloom is my belief that long term free agent deals are, generally, a terrible bet, and you need to be very careful with them. It's not impossible to build a team that way. But you have to be really careful, and hope luck is on your side. And this past year's class has really driven that home, land mines everywhereI get the sentiment, but I am not sure we will ever end up with a true "cautionary tale" of a contract. Before Xander there was Strasburg (or, to a lesser extent, Sale), before Strasburg there was Stanton, before Stanton there was Miggy, and so on.
There will probably always be an owner willing to give up this kind of money (as well as owners unwilling to give up reasonable money, but that's a conversation for Peter Angelos), and fan bases will continue to clamor for their home team to sign their home grown stars and whine about it when they don't.
I think one of the big reasons why there was a decent amount of clamor for the Sox to splurge on a FA SS was that our options were otherwise pretty grim---I *think* I was able to pull up the combined lines for every PA by a SS so far this season and their triple slash lines have been 0.228/0.292/0.357 which is.....bad. (WAR of -0.2). And relatedly, 2B has also been terrible: 0.242/0.272/0.347. So any of those FA "busts" would look pretty damn good by comparison.One of the reasons I've been patient with Bloom is my belief that long term free agent deals are, generally, a terrible bet, and you need to be very careful with them. It's not impossible to build a team that way. But you have to be really careful, and hope luck is on your side. And this past year's class has really driven that home, land mines everywhere
Xander: 265/339/395
Correa: 230/310/404
Turner: 250/303/403
Abreu: 234/291/343
Rizzo: 244/328/378
Benentendi: 272/337/352
DeGrom out until at least next August. Rodon a disaster.
They haven't all been bad -- Judge has been himself when healthy and his injury seemed fluke-ish, Verlander has produced. Dansby Swanson looks like the best of vaunted SS bunch with great D, a solid 249/333/434, and his deal was comparatively modest (only 6 more years to go in his age 29 season). But relatively speaking, Bloom crushed it this past year with Yoshida/Turner/Duvall/Jansen/Martin, even if we factor in the Kluber and Kike bombs (the latter not technically a FA deal but I'll count it) .
Sure. All of them are positive WAR players this year and their production would be helpful on the Sox. But, they are all in year 1 of gazillion dollar deals that go on well into the next decade. Would you take any of them on at full cost this offseason?I think one of the big reasons why there was a decent amount of clamor for the Sox to splurge on a FA SS was that our options were otherwise pretty grim---I *think* I was able to pull up the combined lines for every PA by a SS so far this season and their triple slash lines have been 0.228/0.292/0.357 which is.....bad. (WAR of -0.2). And relatedly, 2B has also been terrible: 0.242/0.272/0.347. So any of those FA "busts" would look pretty damn good by comparison.
Swanson, maybe (6/164 remains). The rest, no.Sure. All of them are positive WAR players this year and their production would be helpful on the Sox. But, they are all in year 1 of gazillion dollar deals that go on well into the next decade. Would you take any of them on at full cost this offseason?
I have long thought that a strategy of simply avoiding the worst case scenario is a solid recipe to be pretty good at damn near anything. Having a bunch of old, bad players on big contracts is the worst case scenario. If you're extremely selective in handing out long, large contracts, you will at the very least retain the financial and roster flexibility to pivot when all the random shit that happens in life happens.There’s an alternate universe where the Sox offers to Xander and Abreu are accepted, the off-season is more exiting, but the current team is worse, and the future is not as bright.
Good good.Obviously we have no clue what will happen after this current CBA, but the CBT thresholds really aren't moving much during this one:
2022: $230 million
2023: $233 million
2024: $237 million
2025: $241 million
2026: $244 million
This isn't like the sports that do #s based on a % of income. So either teams are just tripping, or, more likely, the lessening of the penalties for going over makes teams more comfortable with potential albatross contracts because it's just $.
Hope X has a great time in San Diego & wish them all the luck in the world unless they're playing us. I have a feeling the Padres might start having some questions about whether this was a good call as early as this year, though.
Sush, it's self care.Quoting yourself? That's a paddlin'.
I thought it had been reported that the red sox were aware that he was managing a wrist issue when he was still here?IIRC he suffered a wrist injury earlier this year and that certainly could explain why he's not driving the ball or hitting it as hard as he used it. He's actually striking out less and walking more this year than he did last year. His OPS+ is 105 which isn't a total disaster but of course the contract means it's not what they were expecting. Still, it's not my money.
If I were a betting man I'd expect a rebound of some sort from him next year, although it remains to be seen how much of one might take place.
Lol I shouldn't have. I think I've got too comfortable quoting myself all day in the minor league daily threads.Quoting yourself? That's a paddlin'.
I believe the wrist injury is not new this year. He's had problems with that wrist dating back to at least 2021. At the very least, the cortizone shot he got in it during spring training was described as addressing something that bothers him every spring. That it seems to have become chronic might explain the precipitous drop in his ISO over the last couple years. I recall he got hit on the other wrist back in 2017 and struggled all season to drive the ball and basically got by hitting the other way a ton. Might be a similar thing going on now only he doesn't appear to be getting better.X's BABIP is .300 this year after many years of being well above that figure (.338, .329, .333, .362). His ISO is way down and his ground ball rate is way up (49.5%). He's also continuing a five year trend of pulling the ball less each year.
IIRC he suffered a wrist injury earlier this year and that certainly could explain why he's not driving the ball or hitting it as hard as he used it. He's actually striking out less and walking more this year than he did last year. His OPS+ is 105 which isn't a total disaster but of course the contract means it's not what they were expecting. Still, it's not my money.
If I were a betting man I'd expect a rebound of some sort from him next year, although it remains to be seen how much of one might take place.
I think that's true, but he also aggravated it in SD this year and took a cortisone shot at one point.I thought it had been reported that the red sox were aware that he was managing a wrist issue when he was still here?
We'll see. I'm not convinced yet. But it's possible. But here's the thing. Critics of Bloom will be critical either way. If X performs like a stud, they'll say that Bloom was a fool for not signing him. If X performs like a dud, they'll say, yeah SD outbid Bloom, but Bloom DID offer X a humongous contract and got lucky that SD stepped in to save his bacon.Feels like the Sox may have really dodged a bullet here.
I think any smart team would love to not have players after age 33 and they played that contract well. They’re likely going to have Devers crap years but since he’s young, it may only be for 2-4 of them.Feels like the Sox may have really dodged a bullet here.
That goes for any GM, really, and it's part of the job. Bloom won't get that benefit of the doubt like Theo did until he wins more.We'll see. I'm not convinced yet. But it's possible. But here's the thing. Critics of Bloom will be critical either way. If X performs like a stud, they'll say that Bloom was a fool for not signing him. If X performs like a dud, they'll say, yeah SD outbid Bloom, but Bloom DID offer X a humongous contract and got lucky that SD stepped in to save his bacon.
Two - one in spring training, and another in July. It gave him a little bit of a boost then, which may be wearing off.I think that's true, but he also aggravated it in SD this year and took a cortisone shot at one point.
I mean, this is just accurate. I think it's kind of ludicrous to be critical of Bloom's overall performance at this point (which isn't to say it might not be correct again in the future), but the latter scenario you describe is what happened here.We'll see. I'm not convinced yet. But it's possible. But here's the thing. Critics of Bloom will be critical either way. If X performs like a stud, they'll say that Bloom was a fool for not signing him. If X performs like a dud, they'll say, yeah SD outbid Bloom, but Bloom DID offer X a humongous contract and got lucky that SD stepped in to save his bacon.
The top formal offer was 6/$160m, per Speier: a bit more than half of what he signed for.I mean, this is just accurate. I think it's kind of ludicrous to be critical of Bloom's overall performance at this point (which isn't to say it might not be correct again in the future), but the latter scenario you describe is what happened here.
You're right that the latter scenario is more or less what happened. However there was a ton of criticism following the Pads "saving his bacon" that he low-balled X repeatedly, including with that so-called "humongous" offer.I mean, this is just accurate. I think it's kind of ludicrous to be critical of Bloom's overall performance at this point (which isn't to say it might not be correct again in the future), but the latter scenario you describe is what happened here.
Yeah, often GMs try to do this when their superstars hit FA and they don't actually want to sign them. NY did the same thing with Cano, offering enough to make it seem to the fanbase like they were making an effort but not enough to actually come close to winning the bidding.You're right that the latter scenario is more or less what happened. However there was a ton of criticism following the Pads "saving his bacon" that he low-balled X repeatedly, including with that so-called "humongous" offer.
Just to dive into this a bit -- nobody is ever immune. Theo earned an amazing amount of goodwill with 2004 and then 2007, but that would have run out quick had things gone south. He left while he was more or less still on top. Watch what happens in October if the Pats start 2-5.That goes for any GM, really, and it's part of the job. Bloom won't get that benefit of the doubt like Theo did until he wins more.
Even winning a WS doesn't immunize a GM from criticism (see Dombrowski, Dave).
The more frustrating thing is that these same idiots would have been saying Chaim overpaid him more than the market would bear, if he came in with the top offer. Hell, that last 'formal' offer seemed like X was about to accept that day, until Preller came out of nowhere.You're right that the latter scenario is more or less what happened. However there was a ton of criticism following the Pads "saving his bacon" that he low-balled X repeatedly, including with that so-called "humongous" offer.
He started getting cortisone shots last year after the collision with VerdugoI think that's true, but he also aggravated it in SD this year and took a cortisone shot at one point.
It strikes me as fairly ironic that we're having a discussion about X rebounding from a wrist injury that has been plaguing him for more than a year, driving down his slugging percentages (which were already declining), when the discourse on this website not even a month ago included an argument that Story would never play shortstop again after having his elbow repaired. I mean, even if Xander's BABIP were more like .330, you're still looking at a guy who has just turned 30, and is slugging about .420 after slugging .450 the year before that, .493 before that, and .500 before that. That's still a very good player at shortstop, but only if he sticks at shortstop for the next ten years, and only if this decline in slugging stops at around .400, which it is absolutely not guaranteed to.He started getting cortisone shots last year after the collision with Verdugo
https://theathletic.com/4634013/2023/06/22/xander-bogaerts-offensive-struggles-habits-confidence/
Reminds me of the side chatter around this study from Bill James (via Sports Info Solutions) last year that suggested that Xander "ranks as the player with the highest injury risk in 2023 by our injury tool's projections."It strikes me as fairly ironic that we're having a discussion about X rebounding from a wrist injury that has been plaguing him for more than a year, driving down his slugging percentages (which were already declining), when the discourse on this website not even a month ago included an argument that Story would never play shortstop again after having his elbow repaired. I mean, even if Xander's BABIP were more like .330, you're still looking at a guy who has just turned 30, and is slugging about .420 after slugging .450 the year before that, .493 before that, and .500 before that. That's still a very good player at shortstop, but only if he sticks at shortstop for the next ten years, and only if this decline in slugging stops at around .400, which it is absolutely not guaranteed to.
Xander's wrist injury, for what it's worth, is the definition of a reoccurring injury that indicates he could be injury prone. He might not be missing time for his wrist, but the fact that he hasn't had surgery to repair it and is just "managing" it, all while his ISO numbers decline year-over-year -- that's a gigantic red flag to me. I would not bet on a rebound for him unless he gets that wrist repaired in some fashion. Getting a cortisone shot is also a red flag to me. You don't do that unless the pain is intense and you feel like surgery isn't a good option, right? I really don't know.