Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

[effectivelywild]

Ceddanne sitting at a HH% of 30%, a BABIP of .267, and a K rate of 27%. HH% is bottom 20th percentile, K rate is 24th percentile, and of course the BB% is bottom 3rd percentile. A lot to improve on there. But the K rate, whil, uh, really bad, is an improvement over last year's 31%, and much better than Wong or Dalbec posted on their first introduction to the bigs. And look at Wong, he's cut his K rate all the way down to 22% so far this year. (Don't look at Dalbec, though). Just looking for silver linings.

7 game hitting streak is fun, and hits in 9 of his last 10 games. Could really be that he's heating up, which would be great for the offense.

I think the general consensus is that the gap between AAA and MLB pitching is as great as it has ever been and there are a lot of prospects that have struggled out of the gate as they make the jump. Certainly I think there have been many more heralded prospects that have also debuted this year and greatly struggled. Luckily, CR's glove, either in CF or as the team's bets option for SS, will hopefully keep him up for awhile and we can see if he can adjust or Dalbec.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I think the general consensus is that the gap between AAA and MLB pitching is as great as it has ever been and there are a lot of prospects that have struggled out of the gate as they make the jump. Certainly I think there have been many more heralded prospects that have also debuted this year and greatly struggled. Luckily, CR's glove, either in CF or as the team's bets option for SS, will hopefully keep him up for awhile and we can see if he can adjust or Dalbec.

I’m curious why that gap has grown…. Hasn’t been an expansion team in 3 decades. The 26 man roster?

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Looking at Rafaela, it seems our timeline and expectations need to be tempered (and Abreau’s performance all the more appreciated). From Law’s article:

Through Monday, the average Stuff+ of every pitch in the majors was 100. At Triple A, it was 86, down from 95 last season. Among major-league starting pitchers, that’s roughly the difference between Mitch Keller and Griffin Canning. Only 29 starters out of 142 have thrown 20+ innings with a worse than 86 stuff.

 

[nvalvo]

Looking at Rafaela, it seems our timeline and expectations need to be tempered (and Abreau’s performance all the more appreciated). From Law’s article:

Through Monday, the average Stuff+ of every pitch in the majors was 100. At Triple A, it was 86, down from 95 last season. Among major-league starting pitchers, that’s roughly the difference between Mitch Keller and Griffin Canning. Only 29 starters out of 142 have thrown 20+ innings with a worse than 86 stuff.

I think the larger point stands, but it bears mentioning that Rafaela roughed up last year’s AAA.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

I think the larger point stands, but it bears mentioning that Rafaela roughed up last year’s AAA.

For sure: 199 ABs, .312/.370/.618 with 14 home runs. Hence the long leash this year, which I think is the right move.

 

[jacklamabe65]

For sure: 199 ABs, .312/.370/.618 with 14 home runs. Hence the long leash this year, which I think is the right move.

I agree, especially because of the injuries and the reality that this team probably won't compete. I would love to see the Sox extend Casas while he is injured (and perhaps vulnerable).

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

For sure: 199 ABs, .312/.370/.618 with 14 home runs. Hence the long leash this year, which I think is the right move.

It's absolutely the right move. Maybe he'd spend the first half in AAA if everyone was healthy, but that'd be more about playing time than ability. At some point you have to let the kids play and see if they'll sink or swim. If you're not going to do it when you're rebuilding, when are you ever going to do it? And it's not like the team has great alternatives. It'd be one thing if he was taking AB's from someone like Abreu, but I'd rather give Rafaela a shot over guys like Pablo Reyes and Zack Short.

 

[Rovin Romine]

It's absolutely the right move. Maybe he'd spend the first half in AAA if everyone was healthy, but that'd be more about playing time than ability. At some point you have to let the kids play and see if they'll sink or swim. If you're not going to do it when you're rebuilding, when are you ever going to do it? And it's not like the team has great alternatives. It'd be one thing if he was taking AB's from someone like Abreu, but I'd rather give Rafaela a shot over guys like Pablo Reyes and Zack Short.

Yeah, the not-blocking-anyone-at-SS is key. They have to play someone there, and he happens to be the best defensive option anyway. Hopefully when they move him back to the OF, he'll be hitting enough so he wouldn't be grossly displacing a key bat in the organization.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

Yeah, the not-blocking-anyone-at-SS is key. They have to play someone there, and he happens to be the best defensive option anyway. Hopefully when they move him back to the OF, he'll be hitting enough so he wouldn't be grossly displacing a key bat in the organization.

Yeah, I think CF is where the Sox ultimately want Rafaela, so something will have to give eventually, but not until they find a capable SS to take over. If the Sox fade and are sellers at the deadline, maybe they move O'Neill to open up an OF spot. Who knows how the Sox view Duran long-term, they could include him in an offseason trade. Do they sell high on Abreu? It'll be interesting to see how that eventually shakes out.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Yeah, I think CF is where the Sox ultimately want Rafaela, so something will have to give eventually, but not until they find a capable SS to take over. If the Sox fade and are sellers at the deadline, maybe they move O'Neill to open up an OF spot. Who knows how the Sox view Duran long-term, they could include him in an offseason trade. Do they sell high on Abreu? It'll be interesting to see how that eventually shakes out.

Assuming no more catastrophic injuries, I don't see Rafaela moving back to CF this season. If the Sox are sellers at the deadline, they're not going to be acquiring a SS as good as Rafaela (at least defensively speaking). If they're buying at the deadline, then that suggests that what they're doing is working (particularly in the outfield) and I doubt they disrupt it.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Yeah, I think CF is where the Sox ultimately want Rafaela, so something will have to give eventually, but not until they find a capable SS to take over. If the Sox fade and are sellers at the deadline, maybe they move O'Neill to open up an OF spot. Who knows how the Sox view Duran long-term, they could include him in an offseason trade. Do they sell high on Abreu? It'll be interesting to see how that eventually shakes out.

Looking ahead, they basically have 4 in-house options for SS.

Story - 2025.​

Mayer - doing well in AA, so perhaps 2025.​

Grissom - can play the position but had the yips there in ATL.​

Hamilton - not hitting at MLB level, plus questionable defense, plus little field time.​

​

So I think Rafaela is the starting SS for effectively the whole year. Unless: Hamilton catches fire, or Valdez displaces Grissom to SS. Very low probability on each I think.

But 2025 should have Story or Mayer or some other solution in hand, and Rafaela will go back to CF to maximize his value.

I don't think they're moving Duran. He's turned into a plus OF and has hit (and run) consistently. Same with Abreu. And that's 3 OFs right there, which they don't have to move since nobody is currently busting the door down. Roman Anthony has stalled at AA. Maybe he fires it up again, but who else is there in the high minors who can make the jump this year or in 2025? Lugo's having a nice year repeating AA, but his K% is 29 and his BABIP is .415.

 

[nvalvo]

Roman Anthony has stalled at AA.

I don’t know that I’d conclude this based on a .700 OPS in 100 April ABs in Portland by a 20 year old.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I don’t know that I’d conclude this based on a .700 OPS in 100 April ABs in Portland by a 20 year old.

Either way though…. Anthony is 19. Nineteen years old. He needs to just move a little slower even if he turns AA into mincemeat, moves to AAA and does the same there this season.
His likeliest arrival time is 2026. The Sox will move slowly with him

 

[simplicio]

OF for next year is just Duran/Rafaela/Abreu with Ref backing up I'd expect.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I don’t know that I’d conclude this based on a .700 OPS in 100 April ABs in Portland by a 20 year old.

Sure, there are a bunch of caveats - age, early in the year, etc. And I did note that he might fire things back up again.

But I don't think he's currently on track to be a starting OF in 2025. Not if he stays at his present production (.732 OPS, 31% K rate) for the rest of the year in AA. Or probably even half the year. He'll need to hit well enough to get a promotion to AAA at some point, and then continue to hit there.

If he turns on the jets over the weekend, gets to AAA mid season, and hits there - sure. It's actually possible with him, but I think his ETA is now more likely mid-2025 at best.

***

Really though, what the Sox need to do is find some way to address the high-minors/MLB hitting gap, then get that in place for their prospects.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

Looking ahead, they basically have 4 in-house options for SS.

Story - 2025.​

Mayer - doing well in AA, so perhaps 2025.​

Grissom - can play the position but had the yips there in ATL.​

Hamilton - not hitting at MLB level, plus questionable defense, plus little field time.​

​

So I think Rafaela is the starting SS for effectively the whole year. Unless: Hamilton catches fire, or Valdez displaces Grissom to SS. Very low probability on each I think.

But 2025 should have Story or Mayer or some other solution in hand, and Rafaela will go back to CF to maximize his value.

I don't think they're moving Duran. He's turned into a plus OF and has hit (and run) consistently. Same with Abreu. And that's 3 OFs right there, which they don't have to move since nobody is currently busting the door down. Roman Anthony has stalled at AA. Maybe he fires it up again, but who else is there in the high minors who can make the jump this year or in 2025? Lugo's having a nice year repeating AA, but his K% is 29 and his BABIP is .415.

Yeah, we're pretty much on the same page here. I only mentioned Duran because he'll be 28 next year. Do they want to keep him around long-term or cash him in after another strong season? I think it's worth exploring if it brings back quality pitching. But they certainly don't have to move him and I'm perfectly fine with him in the OF and at the top of the lineup. But like the Rafaela situation, it's not one they have to worry about right now.

 

[nvalvo]

I don’t disagree with any of that. Carry on!

 

[effectivelywild]

Really though, what the Sox need to do is find some way to address the high-minors/MLB hitting gap, then get that in place for their prospects.

That's easy: 1. Trade for the best MLB pitchers with options remaining. 2. Option them to Pawtucket. 3. Have them focus on throwing game-intensity batting practice to our hitting prospects instead of piitching in games.

There's also then the added advantage of boosting the major league team's offense by reducing the quantity of good young pitchers in the majors.

Breslow, if you're listening, I'm available to join the FO in an advisory role.

 

[Rovin Romine]

That's easy: 1. Trade for the best MLB pitchers with options remaining. 2. Option them to Pawtucket. 3. Have them focus on throwing game-intensity batting practice to our hitting prospects instead of piitching in games.

There's also then the added advantage of boosting the major league team's offense by reducing the quantity of good young pitchers in the majors.

Breslow, if you're listening, I'm available to join the FO in an advisory role.

Huh. That's wild. But it could be effective.

 

[Just a bit outside]

Eno Sarris put out an article on Wednesday showing that Rafaela has faced the highest pitching+ of any hitter in MLB. Of the 15 guys who have faced the highest pitching+ only 3 are doing better than their projections. It seems the jump to MLB for Rafaela is even larger than you would expect. Hopefully, it will even out a little and his bat will pick up.

 

[cantor44]

Looking at Rafaela, it seems our timeline and expectations need to be tempered (and Abreau’s performance all the more appreciated). From Law’s article:

Through Monday, the average Stuff+ of every pitch in the majors was 100. At Triple A, it was 86, down from 95 last season. Among major-league starting pitchers, that’s roughly the difference between Mitch Keller and Griffin Canning. Only 29 starters out of 142 have thrown 20+ innings with a worse than 86 stuff.

Wow, that's incredibly illuminating and does mitigate my previous point.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I'm not sure is Ceddanne Rafaela is getting nearly the credit he deserves for stabilizing the defense on this team over the last month. With Romy back, it looks like Cora is going to start little Raffy in CF against LH starters and at SS against righties. This gives him the flexibility to move him back and forth later in the game while pinch hitting as well. He is playing two of the most difficult positions on the field at an extremely high level, and many times within the same game. In yesterday's game alone, he had no business even getting a glove on that eventual home run ball where he tumbled into the bullpen. And the play that ended the game, he made an excellent pick on Wong's throw to get the tag down. In addition, that little Fenway ground rule double ended up being the difference in the game. He's super fun to watch and so far, that contract looks to be worth every penny.

 

[chrisfont9]

Eno Sarris put out an article on Wednesday showing that Rafaela has faced the highest pitching+ of any hitter in MLB. Of the 15 guys who have faced the highest pitching+ only 3 are doing better than their projections. It seems the jump to MLB for Rafaela is even larger than you would expect. Hopefully, it will even out a little and his bat will pick up.

Sox have been on an insane run of facing good pitching. I have no idea when it ends. Even the Nats starters were all solid.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Eno Sarris put out an article on Wednesday showing that Rafaela has faced the highest pitching+ of any hitter in MLB. Of the 15 guys who have faced the highest pitching+ only 3 are doing better than their projections. It seems the jump to MLB for Rafaela is even larger than you would expect. Hopefully, it will even out a little and his bat will pick up.

Thanks. Here's the article for people who might want to see it (subscription may be required): https://theathletic.com/5477675/2024/05/08/new-way-to-look-at-luck-for-hitters/. And the specific chart:

 

[TomRicardo]

I'm not sure is Ceddanne Rafaela is getting nearly the credit he deserves for stabilizing the defense on this team over the last month. With Romy back, it looks like Cora is going to start little Raffy in CF against LH starters and at SS against righties. This gives him the flexibility to move him back and forth later in the game while pinch hitting as well. He is playing two of the most difficult positions on the field at an extremely high level, and many times within the same game. In yesterday's game alone, he had no business even getting a glove on that eventual home run ball where he tumbled into the bullpen. And the play that ended the game, he made an excellent pick on Wong's throw to get the tag down. In addition, that little Fenway ground rule double ended up being the difference in the game. He's super fun to watch and so far, that contract looks to be worth every penny.

I don't think there is a single person quivering over Raefela's contract. Even if he ends up being a bench bat, 6.25 million annual is not a terrible contract for him. I think the concern is whether or not he is going to be able to hit. Credit for his excellent defensive play has nothing to do with that.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I don't think there is a single person quivering over Raefela's contract. Even if he ends up being a bench bat, 6.25 million annual is not a terrible contract for him. I think the concern is whether or not he is going to be able to hit. Credit for his excellent defensive play has nothing to do with that.

I know the BA and especially the OBP leave much to be desired to this point. But he is leading the team in RBI, and is 2nd on the team in doubles and triples mostly out of the nine hole a quarter of the way thru the season. That's not nothing. And he is from Latin America playing in a bunch of cold weather so far. I'm glad he's on the team.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I know the BA and especially the OBP leave much to be desired to this point. But he is leading the team in RBI, and is 2nd on the team in doubles and triples mostly out of the nine hole a quarter of the way thru the season. That's not nothing. And he is from Latin America playing in a bunch of cold weather so far. I'm glad he's on the team.

Strong agree here. That's another of those things that I think are "analytics run amok" as Theo said, relative to looking at RBI as a stat. Driving in runs is still important.

Or put another way, not having a huge RBI number certainly does not mean a player sucks, obviously, but I think being able to be capable enough with the bat to get runners in from third with less than 2 outs and continuing to put together good at bats with runners on continues to be important, at least so long as the result of the game is determined by which team has the most runs. Rafaela is hitting .265/.282/.441/.723 with RISP.


With his speed, I would like to see him try to steal a bit more, but I have a feeling that will come with time.

 

[TomRicardo]

I know the BA and especially the OBP leave much to be desired to this point. But he is leading the team in RBI, and is 2nd on the team in doubles and triples mostly out of the nine hole a quarter of the way thru the season. That's not nothing. And he is from Latin America playing in a bunch of cold weather so far. I'm glad he's on the team.

Are you advocating that RBIs are a better measure of talent than OBP?

Right now he is a useful player on a market neutral contract, you are hoping he develops further into a 1st division starting caliber player. He is young and there is the possibility he can be more than a bottom of lineup bat. I think people are trying to gather what is his realistic ceiling is. Not sure why you are defending him when no one is really shitting on him. No one disagrees he has been a useful player.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Strong agree here. That's another of those things that I think are "analytics run amok" as Theo said, relative to looking at RBI as a stat. Driving in runs is still important.

Or put another way, not having a huge RBI number certainly does not mean a player sucks, obviously, but I think being able to be capable enough with the bat to get runners in from third with less than 2 outs and continuing to put together good at bats with runners on continues to be important, at least so long as the result of the game is determined by which team has the most runs. Rafaela is hitting .265/.282/.441/.723 with RISP.


With his speed, I would like to see him try to steal a bit more, but I have a feeling that will come with time.

I totally agree about the stealing, but a lot of that is he hasn't been on first base enough. I wouldn't mind seeing him bunt early in the count to try to get on. And thanks for noticing him as an exciting baseball player and not just being a stathead. I like advanced stats too, but I also watch the games and his fingerprints are all over quite a few wins this year.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Are you advocating that RBIs are a better measure of talent than OBP?

Right now he is a useful player on a market neutral contract, you are hoping he develops further into a 1st division starting caliber player. He is young and there is the possibility he can be more than a bottom of lineup bat. I think people are trying to gather what is his realistic ceiling is. Not sure why you are defending him when no one is really shitting on him. No one disagrees he has been a useful player.

No, I am not. Please stop twisting my words around for your own pathetic commentary. And maybe actually watch a game.

 

[TomRicardo]

No, I am not. Please stop twisting my words around for your own pathetic commentary. And maybe actually watch a game.

But you are? Both you and Big Papa are saying RBIs mean a lot more the OBP because "stats"!

Did someone hurt you? Seriously this is a weird response. Ten years ago you would been torn apart for this sort of post (20 years ago, you wouldn't have lasted long enough to get there). Photoshops and MS Paints of you partying with a mop with Rafaela's face taped on it. You aren't really offering anything but a window into weird obsessed fandom. It is like being the president of the Horatio Sanz fan club while "publishing" a weekly newsletter about Sanz' life.

If you watched games you would see a player still adjusting to major league pitching. He has trouble getting his bat around for high pitches and struggles a bit picking up on off speed pitches. He has a nice swing and does often square his bat on the ball when he connects on anything on the outer half of the plate.

There is nothing that is going to prevent him from getting better at inside pitches. He is just going to need to get better at recognizing pitches out of the pitcher's hand. I don't think it is a reaction time issue as much as recognition issue because he would not be able to keep up with outside heat if he had poor reaction time skills.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

But you are? Both you and Big Papa are saying RBIs mean a lot more the OBP because "stats"!

I don't want to get into the rest of it because it doesn't concern me, but I don't think either of us said that. I certainly didn't.

Would it be great if Rafaela had a .400 OBP, yes, of course.

I'm also saying that along with getting on base, driving in runners when they're on base is important and shouldn't be disregarded, that's all.

 

[joe dokes]

But you are? Both you and Big Papa are saying RBIs mean a lot more the OBP because "stats"!

Acknowledging the OBP and then saying "but RBIs are 'not nothing'" is a long way from "RBIs mean a lot more than OBP."

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

But you are? Both you and Big Papa are saying RBIs mean a lot more the OBP because "stats"!

Did someone hurt you? Seriously this is a weird response. Ten years ago you would been torn apart for this sort of post (20 years ago, you wouldn't have lasted long enough to get there). Photoshops and MS Paints of you partying with a mop with Rafaela's face taped on it. You aren't really offering anything but a window into weird obsessed fandom. It is like being the president of the Horatio Sanz fan club while "publishing" a weekly newsletter about Sanz' life.

If you watched games you would see a player still adjusting to major league pitching. He has trouble getting his bat around for high pitches and struggles a bit picking up on off speed pitches. He has a nice swing and does often square his bat on the ball when he connects on anything on the outer half of the plate.

There is nothing that is going to prevent him from getting better at inside pitches. He is just going to need to get better at recognizing pitches out of the pitcher's hand. I don't think it is a reaction time issue as much as recognition issue because he would not be able to keep up with outside heat if he had poor reaction time skills.

Not sure where you’re reading that they said it was “more”. Just that driving in runs IS important. And his hitting with RISP is best on the team.

 

[TomRicardo]

I don't want to get into the rest of it because it doesn't concern me, but I don't think either of us said that. I certainly didn't.

Would it be great if Rafaela had a .400 OBP, yes, of course.

I'm also saying that along with getting on base, driving in runners when they're on base is important and shouldn't be disregarded, that's all.

What do you mean disregarded? Once again you keep talking about credit which makes no sense because once again no one is advocating for getting rid of him.

The discussion is how he can improve as you would hope with someone with his swing and skills. He is going to be on the Red Sox for a while if they don't trade him (no one is advocating for him to be traded so please don't jump on that strawman), you are looking for the gaps in his game which he can improve because he is under 25. Right now his pitch recognition looks lacking and he is having a tough time on high and inside pitches especially off speed pitches. With his speed and his ability to square up, thinking he could develop into .280-.300 hitter is not unrealistic (moving him to .330-.360 OBP range).

The question right now is if does him better to back down to AAA or to learn on the job in the majors. No one is arguing he doesn't bring value to the team. The only reason you would send him to the minors is if it would help develop as a long term asset especially now that he isn't worried about service time. Now I tend to argue he should stay up however there have been players like our old friend Luis Urias, where that strategy did not work.

All of that said, none of that has to do with people not giving him credit. This team is not a contender, so your main goal is develop long term assets like Rafaela. If going down to AAA is going to help him be a better player, you do that without a second thought especially since he has a contract.

You don't have to pump up the guy. No one thinks he sucks. Everyone wants him to stay around. The question is what is the best course of action for Rafaela Red Sox player 2025 onward.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

What do you mean disregarded? Once again you keep talking about credit which makes no sense because once again no one is advocating for getting rid of him.

The discussion is how he can improve as you would hope with someone with his swing and skills. He is going to be on the Red Sox for a while if they don't trade him (no one is advocating for him to be traded so please don't jump on that strawman), you are looking for the gaps in his game which he can improve because he is under 25. Right now his pitch recognition looks lacking and he is having a tough time on high and inside pitches especially off speed pitches. With his speed and his ability to square up, thinking he could develop into .280-.300 hitter is not unrealistic (moving him to .330-.360 OBP range).

The question right now is if does him better to back down to AAA or to learn on the job in the majors. No one is arguing he doesn't bring value to the team. The only reason you would send him to the minors is if it would help develop as a long term asset especially now that he isn't worried about service time. Now I tend to argue he should stay up however there have been players like our old friend Luis Urias, where that strategy did not work.

All of that said, none of that has to do with people not giving him credit. This team is not a contender, so your main goal is develop long term assets like Rafaela. If going down to AAA is going to help him be a better player, you do that without a second thought especially since he has a contract.

You don't have to pump up the guy. No one thinks he sucks. Everyone wants him to stay around. The question is what is the best course of action for Rafaela Red Sox player 2025 onward.

I'm admittedly very confused. I didn't post that RBI were more important than OBP nor have I talked about Rafaela getting credit, could you be referring to someone else? No disrespect intended, I'm just truly confused because I didn't post either of the things you attributed to me. I did cite Rafaela's numbers with RISP (which I think are just as valid of a stat to post as any other) and am saying that I think it's encouraging to see that his at bats in those situations are some of the better ones on the team.



To the bigger question you posed - which I agree is what really matters because we agree that as presently constructed the 2024 Red Sox aren't contenders for anything of consequence (and if Casas is out past the ASG, they won't be) - no, I don't think he should be in the minors.

I don't think AAA pitching is capable enough to force him to make the adjustments that WOULD make him a better hitter in majors. Either that will happen or it won't, but if he goes to AAA and rakes for the rest of the year and then comes back up next year, I think it's highly likely we're right back in this same place with Rafaela. So I'd rather get the biggest sample size AND allow him to work on those adjustments in an MLB season where the consequences are fairly small, all things considered. Or, put another way, I think the 2025 Red Sox are better with Rafaela adjusting to MLB pitching in 2024 than they are with him facing the AAA pitching versions of Bobby Dalbec in 2024.

Even if that is "just" to determine that Rafaela is nothing more than a really nice insurance option to cover CF, SS and 2b in case of injury, come in for defensive purposes at the end of close games and give Duran, another OF, Mayer and Grissom each a day off per week in 2025 and beyond. I don't think he'd learn a thing in AAA and I think his being down there now would not only make the 2024 Red Sox far worse but would also not be helping the 2025+ Red Sox at all.

 

[MikeM]

I don't think there is a single person quivering over Raefela's contract.

*shrug* I still don't like this contract anymore then the first day it happened. Still quivering over it a little bit. At least when viewed as a piece of the bigger picture and future surrounding conversation I'm already suspecting will need to be had on whether Craig Breslow is a guy you ultimately wanting signing off on the checks.

I don't believe I've ever been as mentally split in year 1 on any of my pro sports teams' GMs as I already am on him Breslow. Obviously love the early season picthing success stuff. But he's also walking out of year 1 earning an F grade from me as far as his money management goes. Outside the Bello layup he's been all around bad there imo. Including here obviously.

 

[TomRicardo]

*shrug* I still don't like this contract anymore then the first day it happened. Still quivering over it a little bit. At least when viewed as a piece of the bigger picture and future surrounding conversation I'm already suspecting will need to be had on whether Craig Breslow is a guy you ultimately wanting signing off on the checks.

I don't believe I've ever been as mentally split in year 1 on any of my pro sports teams' GMs as I already am on him Breslow. Obviously love the early season picthing success stuff. But he's also walking out of year 1 earning an F grade from me as far as his money management goes. Outside the Bello layup he's been all around bad there imo. Including here obviously.

How do you feel he has been bad? I am honestly curious. I don't think he has done anything to seriously negatively affect the future. I didn't like Giolito contract however.

I wouldn't give Breslow an F but I am curious how you got there.

 

[shanks]

little add to the breslow part here. (sry if this is the wrong thread) but i really liked how he and the front office went out 10-14 days ago, got short, the 2 new 1bs (smith and cooper) and did what appeared to be somersaults with the 40 man for a few days straight.

now, i don’t think any of these moves were amazing or team changing, but i think it showed this yrs team that he and the front office are gonna work everyday to kee this team competitive. contrary to bloom’s ½ on ½ off moves, i felt like it was a good look and showed that he isn’t tossing in this season.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

little add to the breslow part here. (sry if this is the wrong thread) but i really liked how he and the front office went out 10-14 days ago, got short, the 2 new 1bs (smith and cooper) and did what appeared to be somersaults with the 40 man for a few days straight.

now, i don’t think any of these moves were amazing or team changing, but i think it showed this yrs team that he and the front office are gonna work everyday to kee this team competitive. contrary to bloom’s ½ on ½ off moves, i felt like it was a good look and showed that he isn’t tossing in this season.

Not to diminish what Breslow did but that recent flurry of moves was aided (caused?) by the timing. May 1 was a deadline for a bunch of veterans on minor league deals to be added to big league rosters or opt out. So that was the time to pounce and grab some depth as it became available.

I do think it's a bit disingenuous to make those moves seems like Breslow is doing something that Bloom didn't. Bloom may not have done his maneuvering within a two day window like Breslow did, but last year he acquired Brennan Bernardino (4/16), Justin Garza (4/28), Zack Littell (5/5), and Pablo Reyes (5/19) in about a month's span in much the same manner that Bres did...trading for DFAs and making waiver claims. All were made to address shortcomings due to injuries just like Bres's moves. Littell only lasted a week, not unlike Zack Short. Bernardino turned out to be a keeper. Maybe one of Breslow's guys will too?

 

[MikeM]

How do you feel he has been bad? I am honestly curious. I don't think he has done anything to seriously negatively affect the future. I didn't like Giolito contract however.

I wouldn't give Breslow an F but I am curious how you got there.

Quick math and outside Bello Breslow's current final first year spending tally is pretty much all dead money. Again, at least when viewing Rafaela as an asset value that should still be playing on a league min salary atm. $47.5m total when you include in the money he paid out to buy a trending down and non-top prospect asset in Grissom in the process of essentially swapping out Sale's spot with Giolito (not trying to directly hate on Grissom there either btw. More just pointing out that like everythign else that can be framed multiple ways that merit at least some question).

IDK, my intial take on all of that spending saw a recalibration once the lay off the spending throttle stuff became a visable variable factor. Giolito was a terrible contract for us, and you can argue the "bad luck" injury outcome the positive narrative spins would obviously like to give Breslow a pass on are actually a just as damning strike on his record BECAUSE of those same surrounding reasons it was bad to begin with. I don't like the flyer on a 35yo Hendriks coming off that layoff and reconstructive surgery for us in reality where it can't and won't be viewed as a write off expense if/when it fails latter. In every one of those cases it may not have seriously damaged the future outlook, but that is still an extra $30m of clean slate budget I'd of much preferred to see us go into next offseason with.

For me personally, and as somebody who never wrote off the season as a non cometitive effort, that is a running F grade with only the Grissom outcome left that can somewhat change that.

Basically the SSS spending we have to go on there just has me nervous to how that looks and scales going forward.

 

[Sin Duda]

Quick math and outside Bello Breslow's current final first year spending tally is pretty much all dead money. Again, at least when viewing Rafaela as an asset value that should still be playing on a league min salary atm. $47.5m total when you include in the money he paid out to buy a trending down and non-top prospect asset in Grissom in the process of essentially swapping out Sale's spot with Giolito (not trying to directly hate on Grissom there either btw. More just pointing out that like everythign else that can be framed multiple ways that merit at least some question).

IDK, my intial take on all of that spending saw a recalibration once the lay off the spending throttle stuff became a visable variable factor. Giolito was a terrible contract for us, and you can argue the "bad luck" injury outcome the positive narrative spins would obviously like to give Breslow a pass on are actually a just as damning strike on his record BECAUSE of those same surrounding reasons it was bad to begin with. I don't like the flyer on a 35yo Hendriks coming off that layoff and reconstructive surgery for us in reality where it can't and won't be viewed as a write off expense if/when it fails latter. In every one of those cases it may not have seriously damaged the future outlook, but that is still an extra $30m of clean slate budget I'd of much preferred to see us go into next offseason with.

For me personally, and as somebody who never wrote off the season as a non cometitive effort, that is a running F grade with only the Grissom outcome left that can somewhat change that.

Basically the SSS spending we have to go on there just has me nervous to how that looks and scales going forward.

Bingo! We have the leader in the clubhouse for most negative take of the season! Grissom is a "trending down and non-top prospect"?!? Holy WEEI, Batman!

 

[MikeM]

Bingo! We have the leader in the clubhouse for most negative take of the season! Grissom is a "trending down and non-top prospect"?!? Holy WEEI, Batman!

Clarify if you may on your own hot take imo. What in what was stated there was untrue?

Sorry it may have hurt your feelings, but I personally don't view framing the return from the Atlanta perspective as all that hot a take man.

 

[TomRicardo]

For me personally, and as somebody who never wrote off the season as a non competitive effort, that is a running F grade with only the Grissom outcome left that can somewhat change that.

OK this makes sense. You were coming in from the angle this team could win where I came in with this season was always going to be a dud. We also see the money a bit differently.

I always thought Breslow was cut off at the legs by ownership and made the best moves he could. Like you, I thought the Giolito contract made little sense, however trading Sale for Grissom was house money for me (I never cared about any asset not leading into 2025 outside of their ability to get us more assets).

I get where you are coming from though., thanks for explaining.

 

[grimshaw]

Quick math and outside Bello Breslow's current final first year spending tally is pretty much all dead money. Again, at least when viewing Rafaela as an asset value that should still be playing on a league min salary atm. $47.5m total when you include in the money he paid out to buy a trending down and non-top prospect asset in Grissom in the process of essentially swapping out Sale's spot with Giolito (not trying to directly hate on Grissom there either btw. More just pointing out that like everythign else that can be framed multiple ways that merit at least some question).

IDK, my intial take on all of that spending saw a recalibration once the lay off the spending throttle stuff became a visable variable factor. Giolito was a terrible contract for us, and you can argue the "bad luck" injury outcome the positive narrative spins would obviously like to give Breslow a pass on are actually a just as damning strike on his record BECAUSE of those same surrounding reasons it was bad to begin with. I don't like the flyer on a 35yo Hendriks coming off that layoff and reconstructive surgery for us in reality where it can't and won't be viewed as a write off expense if/when it fails latter. In every one of those cases it may not have seriously damaged the future outlook, but that is still an extra $30m of clean slate budget I'd of much preferred to see us go into next offseason with.

For me personally, and as somebody who never wrote off the season as a non cometitive effort, that is a running F grade with only the Grissom outcome left that can somewhat change that.

Basically the SSS spending we have to go on there just has me nervous to how that looks and scales going forward.

I don't know, I mean he replaced O'Neill with Verdugo saving money in the process and also added a useful arm in Weissert with a chance to hit on Fitts still and stayed away from the expensive relievers market like Martin and Jansen.
Slaten and Criswell make peanuts. Cheap, effective relievers are incredibly valuable. If you're gonna count the big contracts, you have to count the small ones too. I don't see the F.

 

[shanks]

Not to diminish what Breslow did but that recent flurry of moves was aided (caused?) by the timing. May 1 was a deadline for a bunch of veterans on minor league deals to be added to big league rosters or opt out. So that was the time to pounce and grab some depth as it became available.

I do think it's a bit disingenuous to make those moves seems like Breslow is doing something that Bloom didn't. Bloom may not have done his maneuvering within a two day window like Breslow did, but last year he acquired Brennan Bernardino (4/16), Justin Garza (4/28), Zack Littell (5/5), and Pablo Reyes (5/19) in about a month's span in much the same manner that Bres did...trading for DFAs and making waiver claims. All were made to address shortcomings due to injuries just like Bres's moves. Littell only lasted a week, not unlike Zack Short. Bernardino turned out to be a keeper. Maybe one of Breslow's guys will too?

you’re right about the timing and i also agree that bloom was very opportunistic in his in season pickups. i was more commenting that it felt to me that the FO was being proactive is finding solutions early rather than wait and dawdle (ei rolling out dalbec for another month). here’s hoping some of these work as we need.

 

[iddoc]

Back to Rafaela for a moment…he has been bad offensively, and a bit shaky at SS, but what is being asked of him as a rookie is rather astounding, especially in terms of relying on him to shore up the team’s defense. He spent most of his time in the high minors in CF, and is now the starting SS for the major league team, with frequent cameos in CF, often within games. All while trying to figure out major league pitching.

Hopefully he’s not the next Donnie Sadler.